Law Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

2439

410

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Elections in Ukraine called before 2027?

Jul 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.37%chance

13979

OptionVotes

YES

101

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

138

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

Will Elon Musk donate more than $400 million to a single 2028 presidential nominee's campaign by the end of 2028?

Dec 16, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.43%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.43%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

1011

989

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

Oct 30, 12:01 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

71.56%chance

5152

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

149

Law Commission News

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Elections in Ukraine called before 2027?

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will Elon Musk donate more than $400 million to a single 2028 presidential nominee's campaign by the end of 2028?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

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