Law Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.36%chance

141401

OptionVotes

YES

1589

629

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

Sweden

USA

Poland

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMJul 24, 2:46 AM

8222

OptionProbability

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

210

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

133

107

Law Commission News

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

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