Law Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

YES

1177

850

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.39%chance

194540

OptionVotes

YES

4667

214

Who will win Portugal Presidential Election?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

72369

OptionProbability

António José Seguro (Socialist Party)

André Ventura (Chega)

Election will not be held as scheduled

Election will be postponed or cancelled

Joao Cotrim de Figueiredo (Liberal Initiative)

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (Independent)

Luis Marques Mendes (Social Democratic Party)

Catarina Martins (Left Bloc)

António Filipe (Communist Party)

Other

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

273

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

Sweden

USA

Poland

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

138

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

Will Elon Musk donate more than $400 million to a single 2028 presidential nominee's campaign by the end of 2028?

Dec 16, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.43%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

109

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

133

107

Law Commission News

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Who will win Portugal Presidential Election?

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will Elon Musk donate more than $400 million to a single 2028 presidential nominee's campaign by the end of 2028?

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

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