Law Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

YES

1152

868

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

204790

OptionVotes

YES

4917

203

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

1470

680

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

Sweden

USA

Poland

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

1051

819

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

108

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Mar 12, 8:03 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

67.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

133

107

Law Commission News

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

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