Law Commission News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

204790

OptionVotes

YES

4917

203

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

42768

OptionVotes

YES

1404

712

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

1689

592

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

Sweden

USA

Poland

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

138

Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?

Jun 6, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.91%chance

9283

OptionVotes

YES

283

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Law Commission News

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Prediction markets for Law Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Clarity Act will pass in September

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Will the SSPX catholics incur excommunications in 2026?

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

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