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Prediction markets for Lead Bank

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025?

Sep 19, 8:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

11.7%chance

133303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2757

368

Russian Ruble worth more than one US cent at year's end?

Jun 4, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.36%chance

111027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

33

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

55.17%chance

7876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

901

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.18%chance

24860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

211

Marijuana rescheduled to III or deductions allowed on federal taxes?

Jul 29, 2:24 AMJan 1, 3:20 AM

13.55%chance

11776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

40

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.29%chance

4700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1700

588

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.67%chance

9481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

49

Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?

Apr 7, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.74%chance

10477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

108

Will Gregory Pepin (deputy CEO of Deltec Bank) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 25, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.48%chance

5318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

112

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Jun 1, 4:46 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

80.41%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

110

In what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?

Jun 9, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

349

OptionProbability

2035-2039

2030-2034

2040-2044

2045-2050

2025-2029

22

21

19

19

18

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