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Prediction markets for Lead Bank

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.26%chance

597484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3407

2480

RBA Cash Rate at end of 26FY?

Jul 22, 11:44 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

73737

OptionProbability

4 - 4.99%

3 - 3.99%

0 - 0.99%

1 - 1.99%

2 - 2.99%

5 - 5.99%

6 - 6.99%

7 - 7.99%

8 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

97

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?

Feb 17, 2:53 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

97.96%chance

91363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

692

14

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.07%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?

Feb 17, 2:50 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

3.21%chance

11814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

15

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will the gold price drop below $4k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.32%chance

7642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.14%chance

12534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

32

Will Gregory Pepin (deputy CEO of Deltec Bank) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 25, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.48%chance

5318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

112

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Jun 1, 4:46 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

80.41%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

110

Lil Durk Stock

May 16, 9:39 AMMay 17, 3:59 AM

130

OptionProbability

NO

YES

80

31

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