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Prediction markets for Lead Bank

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4186

2254

RBA Cash Rate at end of 26FY?

Jul 22, 11:44 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

83753

OptionProbability

4 - 4.99%

0 - 0.99%

1 - 1.99%

2 - 2.99%

3 - 3.99%

5 - 5.99%

6 - 6.99%

7 - 7.99%

8 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?

Feb 17, 2:53 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

97.99%chance

101369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

698

14

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.84%chance

11650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

38

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

12546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.97%chance

14359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?

Mar 31, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

12337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

36

Will Gregory Pepin (deputy CEO of Deltec Bank) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 25, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.48%chance

5318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

112

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in September?

May 16, 5:51 AMSep 29, 4:25 AM

397

OptionProbability

No change

Increase

Decrease

64

29

8

In what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?

Jun 9, 12:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

349

OptionProbability

2035-2039

2030-2034

2040-2044

2045-2050

2025-2029

22

21

19

19

18

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