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Prediction markets for Leading Edge

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.82%chance

455255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3339

2504

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly Elections Winner

Jan 14, 1:07 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

2800

OptionProbability

AITC

BJP

76

24

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Which California Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4534

OptionProbability

Woodbury University

Notre Dame de Namur University

San Diego Christian College

Academy of Art University

Sofia University

Humphreys University

Fresno Pacific University

Pathways College

California College of ASU

Menlo College

100

74

55

50

41

38

37

35

28

27

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

859

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 13, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.3%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

86

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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