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Prediction markets for Leading Edge

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.92%chance

231887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.67%chance

20637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

229

Which California Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3514

OptionProbability

Woodbury University

Notre Dame de Namur University

San Diego Christian College

Academy of Art University

Sofia University

Humphreys University

Fresno Pacific University

Pathways College

California College of ASU

Menlo College

100

74

55

50

41

38

37

35

31

29

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

859

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Which Texas Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

University of St. Thomas, Houston

Southwestern Christian College

Hardin‑Simmons University

Southwestern Adventist University

Dallas Christian College

Arlington Baptist University

Wade College

53

50

50

35

35

30

30

Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 13, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.3%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

86

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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