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Prediction markets for Leading Edge

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

The first human to be declared “immortal” will be from which generation?

Dec 10, 9:08 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

372082

OptionProbability

Other

Zoomer

Alpha

Millennial

Gamma

Beta

67

9

9

6

5

4

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

171096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

Which California Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3414

OptionProbability

Woodbury University

Notre Dame de Namur University

San Diego Christian College

Academy of Art University

Sofia University

Fresno Pacific University

Pathways College

Humphreys University

California College of ASU

Menlo College

100

59

55

50

45

41

39

38

34

32

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Which Texas Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?

May 10, 5:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2262

OptionProbability

University of St. Thomas, Houston

Southwestern Christian College

Hardin‑Simmons University

Southwestern Adventist University

Dallas Christian College

Arlington Baptist University

Wade College

53

50

50

35

35

30

30

Will Amin H. Nasser (CEO of Saudi Aramco) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 13, 1:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.3%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

86

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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