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Prediction markets for Leading the Future

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2050?

Sep 27, 4:48 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.21%chance

7122484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

960

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?

Sep 27, 4:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.05%chance

439289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

543

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Sep 27, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.76%chance

519010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

395

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2028?

Sep 27, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.56%chance

284958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

185

Will Vivek Ramaswamy ever hold an elected government position?

Jan 12, 11:25 PMJan 20, 4:59 AM

76.78%chance

334841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1818

550

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Argentina's poverty level drop below 15% by 2030?

Dec 25, 11:21 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

37.96%chance

421851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

720

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

33%chance

261165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

757

Will AI lead to a dystopia future by 2100 (totalitarianism, disempowerment)?

May 19, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.93%chance

12247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

964

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