Learning Resources News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

YES

196

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.98%chance

14221

OptionVotes

YES

282

175

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

121

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2035 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.16%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

121

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.

Aug 2, 11:34 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

Learning Resources News

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2035 be in the United States?

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

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