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Prediction markets for Learning Resources

This is a solution to alignment.

Jul 26, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.09%chance

4429136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

501

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

376881

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

34

33

13

7

6

5

4

4

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

451

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.58%chance

11381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

179

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.73%chance

6158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

67

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

36

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Feb 17, 6:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

213

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

00

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

00

Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.

Aug 2, 11:34 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

00

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