Learning Resources News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

1862

1305

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.28%chance

11645

OptionVotes

YES

256

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.28%chance

13481

OptionVotes

YES

219

104

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

YES

196

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Feb 17, 6:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.68%chance

647

OptionVotes

YES

292

213

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Nov 2, 12:48 PM

Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.

Aug 2, 11:34 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

Learning Resources News

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Prediction markets for Learning Resources

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Recommend me the best resources to learn about prediction markets

Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.

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