Learning Technologies News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

25491

17311

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

YES

984

823

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.66%chance

243458

OptionVotes

YES

1923

829

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

2215

451

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

YES

1564

640

Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?

Jul 8, 12:58 PMMar 8, 11:25 AM

18.43%chance

101310

OptionVotes

YES

2104

475

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.69%chance

27778

OptionVotes

YES

1135

706

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54%chance

15733

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

1123

765

Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?

Mar 7, 5:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8199

OptionProbability

Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

The Odyssean Institute

Mechanical Library

Educate the public about high impact causes

Science prediction markets for replicability

Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

Building software to demystify land use regulations

Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

Upgrade YIMBY messaging

Publish a book on Egan education for parents

Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

An online science platform

Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

News through prediction markets

A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

Replicate social science research

Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers

Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change

Will I learn Chinese before 2030?

Sep 10, 11:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9151

OptionProbability

won't seriously atrempt

will serious attempt, with no success

will learn to a useful level

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

587

OptionVotes

YES

196

Learning Technologies News

Prediction markets for Learning Technologies

Prediction markets for Learning Technologies

Prediction markets for Learning Technologies

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?

Will I learn Chinese before 2030?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

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