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Learning Technologies News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58313

10496

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.35%chance

444648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

753

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

949

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.96%chance

253695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

835

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.64%chance

171605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

762

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

Biotech creates a technology rivaling AI

Apr 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.27%chance

8897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

535

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Will I learn to visualize 4D space before 2035?

Jun 20, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

18828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device

Apr 1, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.92%chance

9274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

390

89

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

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