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Prediction markets for Left

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5380630

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

34

6

0

0

0

Centre Left wins In Brazil, USA and New Zealand?

Sep 29, 5:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.03%chance

1921736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

684

Will Zoro ever open his left eye?

May 24, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.6%chance

9515522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

662

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Mar 30, 2:17 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

81.33%chance

10012166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

697

Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party

Jun 20, 8:10 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

30.31%chance

859515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

957

Will "Why I Left Google DeepMind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.89%chance

182684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1779

29

If Republicans lose the Senate and Alito has not left the Court, will he leave before the new senators are seated?

Apr 3, 12:27 AMJan 3, 11:59 AM

15%chance

162415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will I still have a notable injury to my left knee after a year

Jun 12, 12:44 AMApr 25, 4:00 PM

43.59%chance

111577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11377

8790

Will Elon Musk become left-coded again before 2035?

Feb 4, 1:46 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16.94%chance

311249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

922

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 5:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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