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Prediction markets for Left

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Will Zoro ever open his left eye?

May 24, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.99%chance

9415512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

652

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

Mar 30, 2:17 PMMar 31, 3:59 AM

70.52%chance

9711359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

869

Who will learn to write first? My left hand or my robot hand?

Feb 8, 2:32 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

28.2%chance

707024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

627

Will the next president of France be from a left-wing party

Jun 20, 8:10 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

21.51%chance

715809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

882

Who will be the last Manifold founder left standing?

Nov 25, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

265630

OptionProbability

Stephen

Austin

James

79

10

10

Will Elon Musk become left-coded again before 2035?

Feb 4, 1:46 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16.94%chance

311249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

922

Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

Aug 1, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

101246

OptionProbability

10 v 10

100 v 100

30

21

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the best performing left wing candidate in presidential election 2027 ?

Dec 16, 5:06 AMApr 9, 3:59 AM

37.05%chance

14678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

121

Has Elvis left the building?

Mar 7, 9:15 AMAug 16, 10:59 PM

57.61%chance

5143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

780

Will "The funding conversation we left unfinished" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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