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Prediction markets for Lega

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Nov 22, 4:05 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.24%chance

17464772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14915

7159

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

22.09%chance

21534169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6371

4040

Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

Jan 22, 7:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.4%chance

4918536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17049

3233

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

661

Will legacy admissions be abolished at any Ivy League college before 2030?

Jul 2, 4:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

39.7%chance

10013965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1335

1047

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17089

5852

Will the UK legalise marijuana by 2030?

Jan 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

287608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16576

8290

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Africa before 2030?

Jul 1, 10:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.99%chance

1066636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

1122

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45095

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

10

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.01%chance

562081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

1104

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.62%chance

211354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

561

Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?

Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.61%chance

18963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1829

901

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