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Legendary News

    Prediction markets for Legendary

    OptionProbability

    Claude enters Rock Tunnel, surpassing its progress in any previous run

    Claude catches Clefairy

    Claude obtains HM01 Cut by step 39000

    Any member of Claude's team learns Dig

    Claude obtains 3 gym badges by step 50000

    Claude obtains a Bicycle

    Claude 4 Opus is the model that plays the game (not Claude 4 Sonnet)

    Claude obtains 1 gym badge by step 20000

    Claude gives a thirsty guard a drink

    Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

    Lack of thinking text display is fixed before 5/22 6 PM Central Time

    Claude adds 18 or more Pokemon to his Pokedex (surpassing his completion from the previous run)

    Claude adds his starter to his party by step 400

    Claude catches Nidoran

    Claude reaches Pewter City by step 5000

    Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 20000

    Claude reaches Vermilion City by step 30000

    Another model defeats the Champion before Claude (in a run started after Claude 4 was released)

    Claude blacks out by step 50000.

    Claude's current team has at least 3 Pokémon by step 30000.

    Claude catches Spearow

    Claude evolves SPIKE into Nidoking

    Claude enters Mt. Moon by step 6000.

    Claude defeats a Team Rocket member by step 7000

    Claude catches Oddish

    Manifest begins

    Claude spends less than 72 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 72 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

    Claude defeats Lt. Surge by step 30000

    Claude uses CUT on a cuttable tree for the first time more than 1000 steps after obtaining the HM

    Claude finishes Rock Tunnel but takes longer than it took him to beat Mt. Moon the first time (50 hours)

    Claude obtains Farfetch'd

    Claude catches Drowzee

    Claude enters Rock Tunnel before step 40000

    Another model beats the Champion (following criteria like https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/in-progress-will-an-llm-become-a-po)

    Claude reaches Lavender Town

    Claude reaches Lavender Town before step 55000

    Claude obtains a Coin Case

    Claude uses Dig on the SS Anne

    Claude evolves luna into Clefable

    SPIKE reaches level 25

    Claude gets 4 gym badges

    Claude renames a Pokémon

    Claude obtains the Lift Key

    Claude stands next to a sleeping Snorlax

    Claude obtains HM02 Fly

    Claude evolves wings into Fearow

    Claude gambles in the Game Corner

    Claude catches Weedle

    Claude obtains Hitmonlee

    Claude obtains the Silph Scope

    Claude enters Erika's gym

    Claude catches Pikachu

    Claude enters Mt. Moon after step 20000

    Claude obtains HM05 Flash

    Claude misspells a Pokemon name

    Changes are made to help Claude see cuttable trees

    Claude obtains Dugtrio

    Claude buys a Magikarp

    Claude re-prompts the Rocket in Mt. Moon to try and give it the fossil

    Claude releases any Pokemon

    Claude enters Safari Zone

    The Area Hints section of the prompt is changed during the run

    Joe Biden dies

    Claude beats Erika or obtains the Lift Key by step 200000

    Claude catches any legendary Pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo)

    Claude defeats the Champion

    Claude 4 Opus is #1 in the chatbot arena leaderboard

    Claude picks Charmander

    Claude takes more than 2000 steps between arriving in Pewter city and entering Pewter gym

    Claude picks Dome Fossil (again)

    Claude spends less than 24 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 24 hr from first entrance to stepping onto Route 4)

    Claude reaches Pewter City by step 3000

    Claude has a party with 4 or more Pokemon when he first challenges Brock

    Claude's starter is lower level than another party member by step 100000.

    Claude has a full, six-member party before step 10000

    Claude spends less than 48 hours in Mt. Moon (less than 48 hr from first entrance to stepping onto eastern Route 4)

    Claude blacks out 3 times in Mt. Moon before reaching Cerulean City

    Claude reaches Cerulean City by step 12500

    Claude's current team has at least 4 Pokémon by step 20000.

    Claude's two highest level Pokémon are more than 30 levels apart by step 100000.

    Claude is still stuck on the S.S. Anne on step 21000

    Claude reaches Celadon City by step 35000

    Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 23000

    Claude uses CUT a second time to successfully escape the area with Lt. Surge's gym before step 24000

    Claude reaches Lavender Town by step 42500

    100

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    73

    44

    39

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    20

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    18

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    14

    11

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    9

    5

    3

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    4803

    133

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3855

    1987

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    350

    36

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    346

    97

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    261

    82

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1081

    834

    Which legendary 3rd game would Valve release first?

    Nov 6, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3297

    OptionProbability

    Half-Life 3

    Portal 3

    Left 4 Dead 3

    Other

    Team Fortress 3

    Dota 3

    69

    8

    8

    8

    5

    2

    Which Generations of Pokemon Games Will Be Made?

    Feb 2, 3:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    5164

    OptionProbability

    Gen 10

    Gen 11

    Gen 12

    Gen 13

    Gen 14

    Gen 19

    Gen 15

    Gen 16

    Gen 17

    Gen 18

    98

    90

    75

    75

    75

    69

    63

    63

    63

    57

    Will Atomic Semi sell something substantial before 2028?

    Feb 23, 2:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    64.27%chance
    687

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    186

    120

    OptionProbability

    September

    June 7th

    June 11th

    June 14th

    June 18th

    June 21st

    June 25th

    June 28th

    July

    August

    October

    November

    December

    Not this year lol

    27

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

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