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Prediction markets for Legendary
What will happen during the fourth run of Claude Plays Pokemon?
May 22, 5:41 PMDec 15, 8:04 PM
11085533
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
73
44
39
37
35
34
32
31
30
29
26
25
25
24
23
23
20
20
18
17
15
14
14
11
11
9
5
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31%chance
18679660
OptionVotes
4803
133
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
51.21%chance
10010501
OptionVotes
3855
1987
If Eliezer Yudkowsky tried diet and exercise for 6 months, would he lose a reasonable amount of weight?
Nov 14, 8:15 AMNov 21, 10:59 PM
83.19%chance
285530
OptionVotes
350
36
Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?
Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
85%chance
403484
OptionVotes
346
97
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?
Oct 1, 4:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
65%chance
432390
OptionVotes
261
82
Will a new version of Skyrim be released before The Elder Scrolls 6 will be released?
Apr 10, 11:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.65%chance
17559
OptionVotes
1081
834
OptionProbability
69
8
8
8
5
2
OptionProbability
98
90
75
75
75
69
63
63
63
57
Will Atomic Semi sell something substantial before 2028?
Feb 23, 2:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.27%chance
687
OptionVotes
186
120
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
OptionProbability
27
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6