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Prediction markets for Legislative Assembly

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.62%chance

335596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Will a province or territory of Canada express an intent to join, or attempt to join the US before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

5.66%chance

305172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4083

245

When will the UK legislate to replace FPTP for general elections?

Apr 4, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:53 AM

15830

OptionProbability

By end of 2050

By end of 2045

By end of 2040

By end of 2035

By end of 2034

By end of 2033

By end of 2032

By end of 2031

By end of 2029

By end of 2030

By end of 2028

By end of 2027

By end of 2026

80

74

67

59

54

52

50

45

44

42

41

12

3

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Which party or coalition will win the primary vote in the 2026 Victorian state election?

Jun 17, 3:18 AMNov 28, 11:59 PM

6613

OptionProbability

Liberal-National Coalition

Labor Party

One Nation

Other

55

29

15

2

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Sep 2, 4:46 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

13452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner

Jul 6, 4:59 PMNov 29, 11:59 PM

7146

OptionProbability

Liberal-National

Labor

60

40

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia provincial election?

Sep 23, 12:35 AMOct 19, 11:59 PM

4141

OptionProbability

British Columbia New Democratic Party

Conservative Party of British Columbia

Other

62

29

9

How many seats will AAP win in the 2027 Punjab Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:08 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

224

OptionProbability

0 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 58

59 - 67

68 - 117

20

20

20

20

20

Will Senate Bill S7263 Pass?

Mar 6, 2:12 PMDec 31, 3:11 PM

54.21%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

How many seats will BJP win in the 2027 Goa Assembly election?

Sep 6, 10:19 AMMar 10, 6:29 PM

12

OptionProbability

0 - 17

18 - 20

21 - 23

24 - 26

27 - 40

20

20

20

20

20

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