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OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
A new supreme court justice appointed
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Fair elections in 2028
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
USA experiences a recession.
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Approval < 35%
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
trump gets hospitalized
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
Vances have another kid
US national bitcoin reserve created
The US leaves the World Health Organization
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Government shutdown
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
A major war in Asia occurs
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
Joe Biden dies
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
Trump announces he is tired of winning
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Trump says a racial slur
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Dow rises above 65,000
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
The department of education gets desolved
Approval < 25%
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Tesla
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Repeal obamacare
Trump visits Africa
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
54 or more Republican senate seats
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
New national park created
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
JD Vance elected President
Trump runs for a third term
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Record level unemployment
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Trump gets covid (again)
Constitutional Amendment
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump and Obama shake hands
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Starship lands on Mars
10% fewer government agencies
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump dies
Trump gets shot
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
Trump bans abortion nationwide
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
"covfefe" posted again
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
US Invasion of any North/South American country
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Anthony Fauci is indicted
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
John Bolton indicted
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
American Manned Lunar Landing
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New US national anthem
Trump is seen shirtless
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Cannabis is federally legalized
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump and Melania divorce
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
Constitutional Amendment
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump loses the fake tan
A hurricane will be nuked
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
1565
639
OptionProbability
The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025
The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
The company will include at least one image on its website
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will have at least 100 employees
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities
The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model
The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders
The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers
I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)
The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025
The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)
The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier
The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)
The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability
The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input
The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment
I’ll work there (@mr_mino)
The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment
The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/
The company will be involved in a lawsuit
It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company
The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher
The company will make a GAN
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought
It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)
The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms
It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so
The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers
The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website
The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources
Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company
The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology
The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory
Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen
The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines
The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages
The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system
The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system
I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing
Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players
There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members
The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll
The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024
The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations
The company will be acquired by another company
Elon musk will be an investor of the company
The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)
The company will release an app available on iPhone or android
The company will change its name
The company will be merged with or acquired by another company
The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company
The company will build their own AI chips
Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW
The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals
The company will declare bankruptcy
The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract
The company will be publicly traded
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
I'll work there (@AndrewG)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW
The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1203
831
OptionProbability
Sam Altman
Liang Wenfeng
Mark Zuckerberg
Jensen Huang
Dario Amodei
Demis Hassabis
Geoffrey Hinton
Daniel Kokotajlo
Elon Musk
Sundar Pichai
Marc Andreessen
@DwarkeshPatel
Yann LeCun
Mira Murati
Aravind Srinivas
Stewart Russell
Andrew Ng
Arthur Mensch
llya Sutskever
Yoshua Bengio
David Sacks
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Andrej Karpathy
Francois Chollet
John Carmack
Marques Brownlee
@KatjaGrace
Helen Toner
Matt Shumer
Zvi Mowshowitz
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Emad Mostaque
Scarlett Johansson
98
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90
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86
76
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73
67
66
63
63
61
61
56
48
44
40
37
31
25
23
22
18
17
13
10
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1240
806
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1248
801
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1941
898
OptionProbability
OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak
He was fired
He leaked non-trivial information
The leak was not in bad faith
The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama
There will be related legal action against him
The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)
The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya
The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI
He was going to quit
The firing meaningfully relates to Q*
90
85
72
60
50
40
39
30
27
25
8
OptionVotes
YES
NO
221
45
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1099
985
OptionVotes
YES
NO
105
95