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Prediction markets for Level

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.42%chance

455372762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3718

1534

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.24%chance

24534490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2846

1841

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4624367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

7918117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

868

Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?

Oct 18, 7:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.53%chance

12915862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

885

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

28

24

11

11

10

9

7

1

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.9%chance

673914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1197

615

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.41%chance

673036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

1072

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

64.24%chance

9359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1340

746

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