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Prediction markets for Level

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.59%chance

472396309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3236

1913

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

9.34%chance

7655933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31227

3511

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.84%chance

25034655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2610

1919

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4625903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.33%chance

11621255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5123

1149

Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]

Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

8620327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2834

793

Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?

Sep 10, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.78%chance

435559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3736

120

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

604670

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

24

12

10

10

9

6

1

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.9%chance

673914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1197

615

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.86%chance

51250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11250

8889

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

81.38%chance

91109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2090

478

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