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Prediction markets for Level AI

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.27%chance

499415038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3124

2026

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2105

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Nov 23, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.85%chance

281727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

899

Will AI just plateau/stall and never reach full AGI/ASI level ?

Dec 21, 8:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.21%chance

201646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

903

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

In what year will human-level AI first exist?

Apr 19, 10:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.23%chance

181207

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1159

982

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:52 PMJul 1, 3:50 PM

4570

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

80

72

66

60

55

55

45

37

24

11

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

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