Leverage News

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.84%chance

1717830

OptionVotes

YES

16831

5963

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Jan 15, 7:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2413501

OptionProbability

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Cosmetic badges

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Cat ears

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Wizard hat

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Consumable market decorations

Additional site themes

trader bonus multiplier

Monocle

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Halo

Devil horns

Profile page layout customization

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Bull/Bear horns/ears

MtG mana color symbols

Create a clan / community / group

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Discord perks

Mod queue priority status

100

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

YES

2328

593

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM

84.54%chance

282358

OptionVotes

YES

2235

508

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

YES

1141

1067

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

YES

1027

848

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.19%chance

15755

OptionVotes

YES

1027

970

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

28.11%chance

13479

OptionVotes

YES

1226

890

Will Kerry Vaughan (manager at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 5, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.09%chance

12382

OptionVotes

YES

1157

961

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Leverage News

Prediction markets for Leverage

Prediction markets for Leverage

Prediction markets for Leverage

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will Kerry Vaughan (manager at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Latest stories