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Liberal News

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

19.48%chance

20641026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

199

Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?

Aug 13, 9:20 PMSep 12, 10:59 PM

15%chance

81730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.64%chance

371499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

798

Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?

Jan 29, 8:51 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

151324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1806

554

How will the 🇬🇧 Liberal Democrats and Green Party co-operate before the next General Election?

Feb 28, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71216

OptionProbability

Soft electoral pact: parties do not actively campaign in seats where the other stands a strong chance of success

The parties have issued a joint press statement

Hard electoral pact: parties do not stand against each other in seats they contest

The parties have merged into one

45

43

17

5

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

211148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

24822

OptionProbability

Full 4-year term or more

3 to 4 years

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

Less than 6 months

6 to 12 months

37

33

20

8

1

1

People's Liberation Army (PLA) stock

Apr 13, 9:22 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

15767

OptionProbability

NO

YES

267

216

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Who will succeed Mark Carney as the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?

Mar 11, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10189

OptionProbability

Other

Chrystia Freeland

Mélanie Joly

Karina Gould

Justin Trudeau

François-Philippe Champagne

Anita Anand

Marc Garneau

Dominic LeBlanc

Sean Fraser

Christy Clark

45

12

8

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will the more liberal side win the 2026 Wisconsin Supreme court election?

Aug 29, 6:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.4%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

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