OptionProbability
Richard Hanania
Sam Altman
Growing Daniel
Robin Hanson
Elon Musk
Dave Chapelle
Cersei Lannister (from Game of Thrones)
Lelouch Lamperouge (from Code Geass)
Light Yagami (from Death Note)
Polymarket
Evil
Donald Trump
Men
Polygamous Mormons
Thanos
United States of America
UK
Diogenes
Monday
Engineering
Donald Trump (2004)
The Pivot
Scientology
Sauron
Hitler
Techno-solutionism
Bryan Caplan
Israel
Putin
Iran
Russia
SCOTUS
Aragorn
Queen Elizabeth II
Willingness to start Nuclear War
Japan
South Korea
Christianity
Islam
Zionism
God
Roman Empire
Voldemort
Libertarianism
Burning books
Censorship
Mercantilism
Windows
iOS
Effective Accelerationism
Emmanuel Macron
The Stock Market
Tax Fraud
Slytherin
Gryffindor
Nuclear Power
Gender-Critical Feminists
The Azov Brigade
The Butlerian Jihad
The Torment Nexus
The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
John "Johnny Rotten" Lydon
𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘛𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 by Robert A. Heinlein
The Rule of Law
Nick Land
Conspiracy Theory
Dolores Umbridge
Pickup Artistry
Racism
Sexism
Deontological Ethics
Virtue Ethics
The Roman Empire
The Roman Republic
Meritocracy
Racial Colorblindness
Idiocracy (2006)
Dementors (in Harry Potter)
Karl Lagerfeld
Francisco Franco
Victual Brothers
Project MKUltra
Hearts of Iron IV
Warhammer 40K
Having an Anime Avatar on Twitter/X
4chan
Eternal Love
Cryptocurrencies
Theocracy
Pronatalism
Havelock Vetinari
Philosemitism
Friedrich Nietzsche
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
Carl Jung
Neo-Luddism
Antisemitism
Europa Universalis IV
House Harkonnen
House Atreides
House Corrino
Immanuel Kant
Frequentism
Elsevier
Ingsoc (1984)
Aviation
O'Brien from 1984
Michael Scott (from The Office)
Catholicism
The Kelly Criterion
The U.S. Founding Fathers
Julius Caesar
Napoleon Bonaparte
The average between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Elon Musk in 2019
The most right-wing effective altruist you (the trader) personally know
having more than three children
private members clubs
Eagle
APAs (beer)
Minions
Travis Kelce
NIMBYism
RFK Jr.
Watching sports
Gambling on Sports
fast food
franchising
Dogs
The Senate Filibuster
strength training
The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
Mosquitoes
Bears 🐻
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the alliance between the USSR and Nazi Germany)
Defense
NATO
The Meiji Restoration
Fortnite
David Fincher
Purple
Rammstein (the band)
Grass
Marvin the Martian
US politics
Microsoft
The police (the actual police, not the band)
not putting the toilet seat down after peeing
Great Britain
The British Empire
The Great Basil Empire
the Steam Engine
dogecoin
Chesterton's Fence
Neoliberalism
Extraversion
Antidisestablishmentarianism
Recommending state sponsored euthanasia to people because they're poor
Ordo Templi Orientis
One-party system
Working
Religion
Casinos
Mr. House (Fallout New Vegas)
Dr. House
Antisemitism in 2024
Logging
Queens (the sovereigns)
House M.D.
Protoss (star craft universe)
labeling everything into right-wing and left-wing
"Conspicuous consumption"
Flipping a coin
To kill (your own) dog. [IMPORTANT, PLEASE NOTE: Dog, not puppy.]
Queens (the chess pieces)
Being off the grid
Libria (from Equilibrium, the movie 2002)
Darwin Awards
Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
Using sweepstakes rules as an end-run around gambling regulation
Doomsday prepping
Predatory animals
Eating meat
Aggression
Hunting
The majority of people in the world
Economics
Victimizing others for political power
The wing that has caused the most deaths, *net of any lives it might have saved*
Saying "y'all"
Paganism, like in the Roman Empire
Paganism, like executing Socrates
Standardized academic testing
Homeschooling
The Mafia
Private charity
Diabetes
Motorcycle (instead of a car)
Magic: the Gathering (Azorious)
Magic: the Gathering (Grixis)
Magic: the Gathering (Orzohv)
Magic: the Gathering (Spike)
Political Centerists
Mustache (only, as opposed to bearded or clean shaven)
Clean shaven face
Cocaine and Hookers (as a single concurrent activity, as opposed to serverally or individually)
Nature, as opposed to Nurture
corruption
nepotism
The classification of objects
The average person
The average American
Patents
Embryo selection for IQ
Authority
Debt-trap diplomacy
Kiki
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Intelligence/IQ/g
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Height
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Attractiveness
Polygenic Embryo Selection against Autism
Creating options on this martet that are lowkey the same thing as an already existing option
Hereditary rule
Wealth inheritance
Gold
Eugenics
Progress studies
Everything is communism
monarchism
Good faith voting that prioritizes capitalist over populist interpretation of the market
Bodybuilding
The secret group behind everything
Tall
Wide
Choosing the man over the bear
Looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes
a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes
Finance
thinking 4 is a smaller number than -10
Hunks
Bears
J.R.R. Tolkien
Hobbits
Corpulence
Twunks
Uppers
Downers
Ice Hockey
Believing people on the right are fundamentally good.
The Austrian School
Believing people are fundamentally bad.
Believing that the world is an evil illusion which our greatest hope is to escape from.
Believing that everything happens for a reason.
Believing that ending sentences with prepositions is something up with which we should not put.
The honorific "Mrs."
Ineffective charities
Saying « I’m not racist, but… »
Karens
Net-negative counterfactual impact charities
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally good.
Believing that knives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally bad.
Appeasing Russia
Magpies
Corsets
Walternate (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Walter Bishop)
American tourists
Preference for Dinousars looking scaly, as opposed to feathery
Eating
Drinking
Capitalism
Mercantilism
Anarcho-capitalism
Moneylending
« Your mom » jokes
« Ur gay » jokes
« If…, then you’re gay » jokes
Fundamental (or absolute) morality
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were indeed left wing
watching national competitions (world cups etc) instead of professiona club competitions/individual competitions (for instance, UEFA Eurocup (national representations) in football instead of UEFA Champions league (professional sport teams))
Authoritarianism
Game shows
Talk shows
Reality shows
9/11 Conspiracy Theories
Effective political campaigning and coalition building
Independent Voters
The Supreme Court of the United States of America
Ronald Reagan
αρετη
θυμός
στοργή
Becoming a lord with the lord title company thingy
Believing humans have heritable physical traits
Believing humans have heritable cognitive traits
The person who shot at Trump
Believing that you need to believe things that aren't true in order to be a good person
Believing that you should have a good life if and only if you're a good person
Voting for the winner of every US presidential election since 2000
E/Acc
Use of stone tools
Farming
Domestication of animals
Backyard chickens
Sailing
The right of gay men to protect their marijuana farm with guns.
Believing illegal immigrants have heritable cognitive traits
Libtard
Generalist
The cool kids
Gamers
Joe Manchin
Straight non-white Latino women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Straight white men aged 55-64 from rural Florida who are atheist and who were educated toward high school
Lesbian white women aged 18-24 from rural Alaska who are Evangelical and who were educated to high school
JD Vance
doping for body performance
the "culture war"
The decisions corporate executives/ upper management make at work
How corporate executives/ upper management vote personally
Transmedicalism
People in 2024 who enjoy the film White Chicks
The YouTube political content creators that get more views.
New money
Bashar al-Assad
Hamas
Homeowner in the hood (D+80, minority-majority precinct) owns two pickup trucks parked on the driveway and has an American flag hanging off the porch. No other banners/ signs.
The belief that a largely unmoderated social media platform should not face boycotts or government censorship
Lex Fridman
"Yes"
Looking for a good deal
"Your right to free speech ends just where my ears begin"
Elites
Nobles
Small business
Heroes
"Sex work is bad because it's sex"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get sex"
long live the queen
Youtube recommendation algorithm
Hard-working, devout Catholic, traditional-value-minded, entrepreneurial undocumented immigrants
Gay Mormon tax
Bearish Bulls
The original Constitution of the United States, without any amendments
The Constitution of the United States, with the first 10 amendments (Bill of Rights)
The current Constitution of the United States, with its 27 amendments
English Americans
Saddam Hussein
Anarcho-Egoism
Eco-Fascism
Fourth political theory
People in 42024 BCE who enjoyed Grugh the Caveman's painting, "Grugh kill bison with spear, Fronk weak caveman no help"
Legalizing gambling on politics
Futarchy
The works of Christopher Nolan
X should be legal because freedom is more important than Y consequence.
Beating your kids
Requiring your kids to accept hugs/kisses from relatives when they don't want to
Legacy admissions - getting into a university because your parents are alumni
Economic literacy
Killing your neighbor's pet and eating it
Killing your neighbor's pet but not eating it
The madonna/whore complex
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into Representatives of The People
Alcohol prohibitionism
Subsidiarity
Anarcho-cannibalism
Attacking Karl Popper with a fireplace poker
Thomas Jefferson's relationship with Sally Hemings
Living in a town where everyone votes for the same political party
Living in a town where everyone goes to the same church
Living in a town where everyone works for the same employer
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the same school
Homeschooled kids, like Rebecca Black ("Friday" singer) or Cady, the main character from Mean Girls
“The national debt is now $xx trillion, we need to stop borrowing against our grandchildren”
Thinking you or other people speak without an accent, as if that is even possible lol
speaking with the same accent as the median TV presenter
Overpollution and burning fossil fuels, thereby ruining the environment for our grandchildren
Not charging emitters for the social cost of carbon, causing overpollution and fossil fuel use
Having an independent central bank
Trying to take an average over a space that has no well defined average
Political violence
Disliking the American Constitution because it’s a product of the Enlightenment
the madhi coming to the world this century
Having no central bank.
WVO Quine
Phosphorus
Allowing actors to profit from the positive externalities they create
Free banking
Having a currency board
Floating exchange rates
Enclosure of the commons
Inventing insulting nicknames for your political opponents (e.g. "Sleepy Joe")
Turning the names of politicians you oppose into rude words (e.g. "santorum")
"Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" warning labels.
Changing the name of a food on your menu to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom fries")
Changing the name of a drug that you sell to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom kush", "red white and blue tar heroin")
The Hidden-Variable Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The "All About the Math, No Interpretation" of Quantum Mechanics
Concorde
Using LLMs for linguistic analysis in court cases
Using category theory to analyze the Christian Doctrine of the Trinity
Bias
Substack
Being undecided in the 2024 election
“The west is the best” (said in 2016)
“The west is the best” (said today)
Committing a financial crime
sugar
Being neither left wing nor right wing
Hating the West Wing (in 2002)
Hating the West Wing (today)
Shit talking on internet communities, then pretending they didn't
Adultery
Nude Africa
Liking Harry Potter in 2021
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) striking at this point of the presidential race
Saying “Persia” instead of “Iran”
Plastic surgery
@SteveSokolowski
Thinking the one person we select as President is more important than the 1,000s of government positions they will appoint new members to after they are elected.
Voting in line with Blackrock, Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest of the corporate industrial complex.
Believes corporate personhood is the largest issue in this election.
Gender-confirming conspicuous consumption
Gender-confirming consumption
Vice signaling: performatively doing something "bad" to show defiance of someone you disapprove of
Sydney Sweeney's boobs
Watches over $500
Think tanks
Coming from wealth
Black ethnonationalism
White ethnonationalism
Jewish Ethnonationalism
Arab ethnonationalism
Christian nationalism
Being pro-choice for race-selective abortions
Running ads on an alt-right website because the ads are cheap and then going "oops" when your audience becomes notably less tolerant of others
Political rallies
Embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
The Uyghur genocide
Honor killings
Political extremism
Opposing xenogenders
Believing all spirits not in ingroup are demons
Believing you cannot be “plural” without having a dissociative disorder
Copyright law
Compulsory heterosexuality
Virginity == purity
Hormone-activated pheramone perfume
Kegel exercises
Missionary sex with lights off
Thinking "righty tighty, lefty loosey" is about politics
Eating chicken without seasoning
jk Rowling
white freezies
Boiling chicken
Frying chicken
Grilling chicken
Roasting chicken
The average first-wave feminist by today’s standards
Portuguese retirees
Bimetallism
British politics
first past the post voting
Party Switchers (new ideology relative to old)
The belief that vaccines cause autism
Gollum
Smeagol
Boromir
Blohm & Voss P 194
Disliking Trump but not thinking he is a fascist
Calling China “West Taiwan”
Not using tone tags
Not using trigger warnings
Being a virgin
making a big thing out of being a virgin
The concept of virginity
Thinking "AI art" is art
Block Plurality (“plurality-at-large”) Voting
The One Ring
The Philippines
Tariffs
Free trade
The fortnight before the US election
Lisa Murkowski
Spending the night before the election in a US fort
Dubai
Election fraud
Voter fraud
Worrying about voter fraud
Worrying about election fraud
Airstrikes in Beirut
Calling Mongolia "North Taiwan"
Pennsylvania
Calling Japan "Northeast Taiwan"
Calling Kazakhstan "West West Taiwan"
Balloon animals
Breeding cats
CrossFit
Ross Perot
Malty beer
Watery beer
Sparta
Beef jerky
Water polo
Spray tans
Vriska Serket
The winner of the 2024 United States presidential election
Skipping leg day
Garbage
Christmas
Batman/Bruce Wayne
Statues
Statutes
Pink capitalism
Der Ring des Nibelungen in 2024
National bolshevism aka nazbol
Killing Harambe The Gorilla
Gorilla Grodd
Poll Denialism
Killing countless animals in the process of factory farming
The year 1984
George Orwell shooting that elephant in Burma
Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminism
Supporting Genghis Khan in the US today
mars
the sun
going to space
Accelerationist My Little Pony fanfic communities
Elvis
fillers (cosmetic)
Orcs
Dwarves
AI (not al)
Baby
Hillbilly Capitalism
Genocide
Opposing Al (not ai)
Manhattan-like Project for AGI
Opposable thumbs
Humans
Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
The Inca civilisation
Liechtenstein
Reducing the deficit
people who call themselves "classical liberals"
people who actually fit the definition of a classical liberal
Tulsi Gabbard (in 2020)
Treating "the definition" of a word as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
Treating "the grammar" of a language as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
The future of the US Democratic Party, relative to its current position
The future of the US Republican Party, relative to its current position
National Treasure
Survivor (the reality show)
Thanksgiving
Feminazism i.e. violent mass enslavement and genocidal extermination of men
Populism
Centrism
Andrew Jackson
Being apolitical
Microstates
non-geographic nations
Writing in Hailey Welch for president
Unintentionally spoiling your ballot
Ea-nāṣir
Seventh Day Adventists
Criticizing anything left-wing
Italy
Tucking in your shirt
Hats (male)
Hats (female)
Shoes with laces
Eggman's announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyEosgoGgg
Adaptive fitness
Making the world worse to maximize applicability of your adaptive fitness
Being a stupid human
Syria's Sednaya Prison, "Assad's human slaughterhouse"
Protectionism
The average American ten years ago, compared to the average American today
Plato
Aristotle
Toonocalypse
Federalist Party
The San Francisco Freedom Club
People who don’t vote
Gambling
Lucio Russo
Back to office policies
Sam's Club
George Washington
Taking 'Roko's Basilisk' Seriously
Mohammed
Strasserism
This market continuously closing and reopening
Buying a Tesla
John Adams
The unbearable slowness of being
Reality itself
Thomas Jefferson
Siding with India in the India-Pakistan conflicts of 2025
Playing tennis
Anime
Working for the FBI
Working for the CIA
Duke Nukem (Character)
Proud Boys
Letting a cat outside
Scambaiting
The Iranian regime's use of rape, torture, sexual assault to suppress women's protests in 2022-23
War
Consequences despite integrity
Lying to conform to the group
Falun Gong
Hitman: World of Assassination (2021)
Baroque Architecture
Political purges (targeted, systematic removal of opponents)
Druze people
fireworks
Borrowing against our grandchildren, thereby ruining the economy for them
Wild-caught diseases
JFK Jr. (edit: meant RFK Jr.)
Wild-caught bacon
Medical-bill bankruptcy
Taking sides in a conflict between two deeply right wing countries
Wild-caught salmon
Bedouin people
Having a pet cow
Lard
drone shows
One night stands
macOS
Bro try herhood
International Intrigue - Your cheeky guide to a complicated world. Get the 5-minute newsletter designed by former diplomats at https://www.internationalintrigue.io
Alois Mundo
Botox raven cosplay
The Sinclair method
Opinion columnists
Sam Dalrymple
Having other countries and/or people pay for your security
FreeBSD
NetBSD
OpenBSD
Michigan
Olive oil
Biltong
Canola oil
Sesame oil
Moving in together after the second date
The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025
Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare
Sam Kriss
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Gordon Ramsay
Destiny
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Severus Snape (from Harry Potter)
Walter White (from Breaking Bad)
Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)
Dobby (from Harry Potter)
@Bayesian
Manifold Markets
Kalshi
Good
Steven Pinker
Sam Harris
Einstein
Jreg (Satirical anti-centrist)
Artificial Intelligence
This market
Richard Dawkins
Women
Sisyphus
Elon Musk in 2014
Mao
Stalin
Friday
Humor
Gandalf
Participating in this market
The Ivy League
Xi Jinping
China
Software Engineering
North Korea
Europe
Atheism
Buddhism
Judaism
Effective Altruism
Metaculus
Books
Linux
Android
Skibidi toilet
Rationalussy
Satan
Pastafarianism
Taxes
Sam Bankman-Fried
Magnus Carlsen
Hufflepuff
Ravenclaw
Chess.com
Lichess
AGI
Albus Dumbledore
Minerva McGonagall
Hermione Granger
Taylor Swift
Sirius Black
Harry Potter (as a character)
Ron Weasley
Luna Lovegood
Trotskyists
Gay White Cis Men
Solarpunk
The Buddhadharma
Freedom of Speech
𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 by Robert A. Heinlein
Nick Bostrom
Class-First Socialist Analysis
Wikipedia
Solar power
Wind power
Geothermal power
Hydropower
SpaceX
Tesla
The Rawlsian Veil of Ignorance
Consequentialist Ethics
You, The Trader On This Market
The Future
Surprise
Zootopia (2016)
MrBeast
Patroni (in Harry Potter, plural form of Patronus)
Keep the Aspidistra Flying
hermit crabs
The Baltic Way
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Minecraft
Project Blue Book
Roblox
Lawlessness
Drugs
International
The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Antinatalism
Geoengineering
Youtube
The Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Bayesian Reasoning
Sci-Hub
Bernard Marx (from Brave New World)
Karl Marx
Guy Montag (from Fahrenheit 451)
Coolfold self-immolation
Robin Hood
Pope Francis
Transaction fees [shares*prob*(1 - prob)*0.07]
Manifold poker nights
The concept of the left-right political spectrum
The Artemis program
Jesus
Squidward
Ozempic
Georgism
The most left-wing effective accelerationist you (the trader) personally know
Ghosting
Traffic lights
The colour red
Soccer
The Marx Brothers
All votes in this market are equal regardless of mana (left), but the creator is making a big profit (right)
Parrots
Chupacabra
academia
YIMBYism
A healthy diet
Cats
cardio
Proportional representation
Ants 🐜
The United Nations
GMOs
Squirrels 🐿️
organic food
Renaming something to avoid bad PR
The protestors at Tiananmen Square
Curiosity
The Allies in World War 2
The Entente in World War 1
Disease
Video Games
Québec Separatism
Nanotechnology
Speedrunning
Boobs
Unity
Scott Pilgrim
TV shows
Cable TV
Greek Letters
Amnesia
Dyson Spheres
Time travel
Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Borgs (Star Trek )
The Police (the band, not the actual police)
The People's Front of Judea
Taylor Swift
Selena Gomez
Justin Bieber
Kurt Cobain
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Soup
Having sex in the fields to make the crops grow
Liberalism
mind control
Changing your mind
Spelling mistakes
Memes
The minimum wage in Nordic countries
The level of wealth inequality in Sweden
Ernst Thälmann
Lactation cookies
The Warsaw pact
Resisting the ayatollahs' regime, like Saddam did in the 80s
Kibbutzim
Golden rice (vitamin A enriched to prevent blindness in the Third World)
Open borders, a Koch brothers proposal
The internet
protesting
Politics (in general)
Making sure you understand options before voting for them
Tiktok
Dungeons and Dragons
Sex work to pay your own way through medical school
Needing a license to cut hair
Having the proper amount of esteem for Jews - not too much, not too little
White-collar jobs
Anarchism
The Bronx
People holding elected office
Queens (the borough)
Chess
Queens (the men who dress as women)
Opposing Zionism, like Saddam always did
Resisting the imperialistic American invasion of Iraq, like Saddam did
Rejecting the absolute monarchy of Kuwait, like Saddam did in 1990
still greeting people with fist bump (despite COVID is in the past)
no gluten diet (in people without gluten related intolerance or disease) as a hobby
The Khmer Rouge
Two-state solution
Jonathan Swift
Holodomor
Asking ‘Would You Rather?’
Prey animals
Pro Immortalism
Vegetarianism
Veganism
Passivity
Exploiting the victim stance for political power
Gemini star sign
Believing your views are evidence-based even as you label an entire domain of human knowledge as the opposing wing
Paganism
Mistakes
the Judean People's Front
Autodidacticism
Phonics
Catdog (portmanteau referring to a cat and a dog joined at the waist facing away from each other, each with their own two front paws for a total of four legs)
Believing that the world would end during our lifetime
Magic: the Gathering (in person, paper magic)
Magic: the Gathering Arena (Hearthstone client imitation)
Magic: the Gathering Online (before pretty pretty Arena, there was MTGO)
Magic: the Gathering (Timmy)
Magic: the Gathering (Johnny)
Magic: the Gathering (Vorthos)
Tax exemptions for non-profit status
501(c)(3) entities (the most common 501 tax exempt entity by tax identification)
Coffee
Beards (facial hair, excluding mustache only, as opposed to clean shaven face)
NPR (National Public Radio)
AP (Associated Press)
Benjamin Franklin (the historical figure, not the various currency)
Aptitude for Mathematics in general
Aptitude for Science in general
Aptitude in S.T.E.M. in general
Aptitude for History in general
Aptitude for Political Science in general
Aptitude for Entertainment in general
Aptitude "in Bed" in general
Aptitude for Languages in general
Aptitude for Writing in general
Nurture, as opposed to Nature
Ineptitude, in general
Trust
Double standards
Privacy
Honesty
The truth
Hope
Big Government
Obamacare
Sheeple
The greater good
The ideal person
The ideal American
Equal opportunity for all
Equal opportunity for all, but more equal for some
Bouba
The bettors on this market
Dying with dignity
Abortion of Down's Syndrome Fetuses
Abortion
IVF
Polygenic Embryo Selection
Monogenetic Embryo Selection in IVF
Pineapple on pizza
Overdosing on drugs
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Educational Attainment
Polygenic Embryo Selection for general health
Polygenic Embryo Selection against cancer risk
Creating passive-agressive options on this market
Voting on options for this market based on whether you like them instead of what side of the political spectrum they actually fit on
Human Cloning
Cloning John von Neumann
Voluntary Eugenics
Manifest (the event hosted by Manifold)
Everything is fascism
republicanism (opposition to monarchy, support of self-governance)
Twinks
Camille Paglia
Coziness
Slenderness
Field Hockey
Air Hockey
Believing people are fundamentally good.
Believing that responsible stewardship of animals, plants, and natural resources is a fundamental duty of humankind.
Pope Francis' encyclical letter Laudato si'
Virtue signaling
Saying « I’m not a rationalist, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually not being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally bad.
Believing that knives are fundamentally bad.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
thinking 0+4i is a smaller number than -10
modified newtonian dynamics
Walter Bishop (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Olivia Dunham (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Bolivia/Fauxlivia (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Olivia Dunham)
Peter Bishop (character from Fringe)
Mother's Day
Queerbaiting
Dermatillomania
Femboys
Sour patch kids
Being attracted to overweight men
Being attracted to overweight women
Believing that AI should be regulated
Anarchism
Making things worse in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Furthering the goals of the right wing in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Touching grass
Relative morality
Invention of television.
Invention of the phone.
Invention of the wheel.
Emergence of social media in the internet/information age.
Big data
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were actually right-wing and not communist countries
Max Stirner's defintion of a "spook."
Not realizing eastern bloc countries were victims of Soviet imperialism
Soviet imperialism
the Holodomor
forced labor in the gulag
Progress
Alternative medicine
Authoritarian Socialism
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for not espousing communist orthodoxy
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for espousing right-wing ideas
“Biden should drop out”
Podcasts
spitting on people
Body dysmorphia
Anorexia
Continental philosophy
Analytic philosophy
The right to use anything as your name that you choose as long as it isn't for purposes of fraud
αγάπη
φιλία
ερως
Becoming vegetarian because Jesus loves animals
Believing non-human animals have heritable physical traits
Believing non-human animals have heritable cognitive traits
The Giver
Pottery
Writing
Control of fire
Lack of significant body hair compared to other primates
Behavioral modernity
Bipedalism
Specialist
Joe Biden
2024 Summer Olympics Opening
Kyrsten Sinema
Ideal philosophy student of perfect emptiness
Straight Asian women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Kamala Harris
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Anonymous
THE International System of Units
interpreting everything as " it's just a slavery with extra steps ... "
doping for mental performance
Good little Biden
Any presidential candidate doping for mental performance :)
Betting objectively negative options on this market towards the side of the political spectrum you don’t identify with
People in 2004 who enjoyed the film White Chicks
Banksy
Being American but liking Hamas
Thinking Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer
The belief that a bookstore that carries objectionable content should not face boycotts or government censorship
"No"
"Maybe"
"Sex work is bad because it's work"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get work"
Student section at college football games
Land value tax
Gay Mormons
The metric system, like "see ya in a megasecond" or "ugh, 295K weather is fine but 300K is just unbearable"
The original Constitution of the United States, without any English
the state of Kerala in India
Muammar Gaddafi
People in 1424 who enjoyed "The Canterbury Tales"
People in 2024 who enjoy "The Canterbury Tales"
A tax imposed on, collected by, and funding Gay Mormons
The Bee Movie
Jazz
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one corporation/network of corporations
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one person
Madonna (the musician)
Putting too much power in Representatives of The People
"Footloose" starring Kevin Bacon
Eating dog meat
Putting the adequate amount of power in Representatives of The People
Charitably listening to the concerns of the other party.
Women's Suffragettes
John Brown (19th century abolitionist)
Pitbull (singer)
Naivety
David Ben-Gurion
Thomas Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptists
Living in a town where everyone goes to the Unitarian church
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the Montessori school
Living in a kibbutz where everyone works for the same employer
Wittgenstein’s Tractatus
Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations
Sleep
Complaining about your grandparents' generation ruining the economy for you
Richard Rorty
Having an accent
Allowing polluters to pay to pollute (i.e. "carbon tax")
Richard Even Rortier
Gavagai
"Possible Girls" by Neil Sinhababu
"Can There Be Vague Objects?" by Gareth Evans
Hesperus
The Duhem-Quine Thesis
Potlucks
Making actors bear the cost of the negative externalities they create
Currency pegs
Capital controls
Hilary Putnam (1977)
Hilary Putnam (1994)
The Principle of Sufficient Reason
Manifold comments in the past few weeks
Empirio-criticism
The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Knowing a ton about Islam despite neither believing nor being raised in it.
Postmodernism
Creating an option in this market and then accidentally betting it in the wrong direction
Philosophical realism
Algebraists
Analysts
Scientific realism
Scientific antirealism
Liking IRV over first past the post, but not liking approval, STAR voting, or Condorcet methods
Being capable of steelmanning the opposition.
Intuitionism (in mathematics)
Justice
Open marriages
Reading nasty people who diaagree with u just for the dopamine hit
Liking Harry Potter in 2019
ASI
Monophysitism
The indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams
Emitting CO2 to produce solar panels to be sold on an open market
Gender-confirming medical treatments
Minoxidil
Enlightenment Now
short-selling crude oil
Statistical election models
Being aware of the influence special interest has pumped into social media recommendation/search bias.
Value signaling consumption
Value signaling outfit
Microdosing
Visiting the opera
Being pro-choice for sex-selective abortions
Writing in Joe Biden for president
"Holy hempers" - people who say its okay to smoke weed because Jesus also smoked weed
"Crackheads for Christ" - people who say its okay to smoke crack because Jesus also smoked crack
Going to church without believing it
Driving a hybrid minivan to accommodate your 3+ children
Decree 770
Doodling
Thinking AI art is theft
Thinking going to church without believing in it is an example of embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
Responsive and spontaneous desire
Kink support/accountability groups
Using mindfulness meditation for better seggs
3d printed, anatomically correct depictions of larger clitoral network
Enthusiastic consent
consent smell aromatherapy candles
Individualised medicine offering pleasure mapping to discover eroggenous zones
A seggs dungeon with a focus on aftercare
A lubricant sommelier certification course
A seggsual fantasy based on consent negotiations
Pro state massage
Hands-on, self-motivated sex
Quick learner with a passion for processes and multitasking in bed
Detail-oriented and organized sex
Missionary sex with lights on
Keir Starmer
Holodomor denial
orange popsicles
Not buying olives with stones
Asking “why?” over and over like 4 yr olds do
Going camping
Cities
Trekking
Mountaineering
Breaking the law
Jill Stein
First time voters.
Home vegetable gardens
Femcels
Voting
Frodo
Sam Gamyi
Legolas
Stealing from a bank
Wiping from front to back
fiction
News
Marxism-Rodgerism
Independent journalism
Magic
Today's Vietnam
National parks
Autarky
Playing Fortnite before the US Election
Non-partisan elections
Biden dropping out
NIH grants
Cybersecurity
This market crashing on mobile because there are too many options
Being broke
Early voting
Dan Osborn
Fingerboarding
Podiatry
Hacky sack
Stray cat trap, neuter, and release
Hoppy beer
Skunky weed
Fruity weed
Grassy weed
Libertarian Progressivism
Progressive Libertarianism
Coloring
Doing Zumba
Playing tuba
Driving Ubers
Ballot initiatives
Doing the one block vertical jump for the beef
Being anxious about the election
Halloween
Making Election Day a holiday
Anarcho-communist homosexual-fascism aka ancom homofash
Killing Peanut The Squirrel
Killing Gorilla Grodd
First Quantization
Second Quantization
1984 by George Orwell
Saying “literally 1984”
The number 1984
Vatican II
earth
the moon
'That 1 friend whose politics makes no sense' in the latest Man Carrying Thing video
Space
Elves
Elfs
Universes Beyond
Waiting in line
election day doomscrolling
doomscrolling (general)
DnD 1e
DnD 5e
Al (not ai)
Al (Yankovic)
Nothing
Time
We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)
This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)
Opposing AI
Punk
Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)
Opossums
BDSM
Manifold’s average user base
Liberal Democrats (UK)
Silver white winters that melt into springs
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Teachers who swear in class
Pahoehoe
Aa
The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture
Treating your grandma poorly
Safe Sex
Labor unions
UAW
Misandry i.e. hate and discrimination against men
Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party
“Y.M.C.A.” by Village People
Twitter (in 2021)
New social medias created because of perceived problems in an existing one (e.g. Truth Social or Bluesky)
Sonic the Hedgehog
Shoes with velcro
Shoes with zips
Wearing trousers as a woman
Skolem's paradox
The Onion
Community Notes on Twitter
Free Trade, in 2024
Donald Trump at whatever time in his life he was most left-wing
Lilith (Diablo 4)
Socrates
Abraham Lincoln
Philip K. Dick
Luigi Mangione
Yourself (reader) ten years ago, compared to yourself today
The Young Turks (news show) in 2016
The Young Turks (news show) today
Jesse Singal
People who don’t vote out of protest
League of Legends
Costco
dath ilan
Scientists
People who don’t vote because they can’t
Ubiratan d’Ambrosio
Ernst Mach
Ratatouille (film)
Ratatouille (dish)
Juche
Voting for Jill Stein
Octopus
Buying a Tesla (in 2019)
Being a lawyer
Needing a lawyer
The Matrix
Battlestar Galactica
Ursula Le Guin
President Xi Jinping
Manifest 2025
Astronauts
Working for NASA
Male vs Female boxing fights
Integrity despite consequences
Siding with the Iranian regime
modal realism
Boxbox riven cosplay
Classical music
being a public intellectual with ostensibly left-leaning views, but whose career would be obsolete without family wealth/connections
Indoor air quality nerds
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OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
21
19
12
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
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1
1
1
1
1
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Labour
No Party
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
A coalition of some description
Reform UK
Green Party
25
18
16
12
12
11
5
2
OptionProbability
Labour
Reform
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
Green
Other
Scottish National Party
32
26
18
9
6
6
4
OptionProbability
The parties have issued a joint press statement
Soft electoral pact: parties do not actively campaign in seats where the other stands a strong chance of success
Hard electoral pact: parties do not stand against each other in seats they contest
The parties have merged into one
46
45
17
5
OptionProbability
Labour
Reform UK
Conservative
Liberal Democrats
Green
Other
Workers Party
52
21
10
10
5
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1244
804
OptionProbability
Labour
Conservatives
Green
Liberal Democrats
Other
Reform UK
71
6
6
6
6
5
OptionProbability
Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party
Social Democrats & Venstre
Social Democrats & Moderates
Social Democrats & Green Left
Venstre & Moderates
Venstre & Green Left
Venstre & Liberal Alliance
Venstre & Conservative People's Party
Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party
Moderates & Green Left
Moderates & Liberal Alliance
Moderates & Conservative People's Party
Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party
Green Left & Liberal Alliance
Green Left & Conservative People's Party
Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party
Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party
Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party
Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party
Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance
Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
34
OptionVotes
YES
NO
510
325
OptionVotes
NO
YES
114
88