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Top stories

Ex-Clapper Deputy Vinh Nguyen Pressured Whistleblower on Crowdstrike Report; Now NSA AI Chief Amid DOJ Russiagate Probe and Pentagon AI Shakeup

US Gov Appointments

US Domestic Policy

Ex-Clapper Deputy Vinh Nguyen Pressured Whistleblower on Crowdstrike Report; Now NSA AI Chief Amid DOJ Russiagate Probe and Pentagon AI Shakeup

Authors

4

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Libertarian

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Are libertarianism and autistic traits correlated?

Feb 18, 8:18 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM

83.06%chance

261122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1533

828

How many people will be permanently residing in the "libertarian city" Prospera in Honduras by the end of 2029?

Aug 8, 10:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13866

OptionProbability

100+

0-50

51-100

68

31

1

Does some form of libertarian free will exist?

Apr 9, 2:21 AMJan 2, 3:21 AM

13%chance

11434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

954

Will the USA congress have a Green Party or Libertarian member first before EOY 2027?

Jan 1, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7229

OptionProbability

neither before EOY 2027

Libertarian

Greens

87

10

3

Will the Libertarian Party candidate for President receive >1.5% popular vote in the 2028 US Election?

Jan 25, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

If the Mises Caucus loses control of the Libertarian Party, will the resulting faction be pro Ukraine?

May 20, 12:11 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

58.64%chance

8157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

134

Will I no longer identify as a libertarian or neoliberal as a result of an AI convincing me by 2030?

Mar 26, 9:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

153

Will Uruguay's Libertarian Party secure at least 18 Chamber of Representatives seats in the 2029 legislative election?

Jun 5, 6:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will Uruguay's Libertarian Party secure at least 5 Senate seats in the 2029 legislative election?

Jun 5, 6:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will Bryan Caplan vote LIBERTARIAN in the 2028 presidential election?

Nov 11, 1:24 AMNov 18, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

How Libertarian are you?

Jun 16, 8:49 PM

440

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