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Prediction markets for Libre

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Who will France’s next aircraft carrier be named after?

Apr 9, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9523

OptionProbability

France Libre

Other

Richelieu

Jeanne d'Arc

François Mitterand

Simone Veil

Leclerc

Darlan

85

8

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?

May 14, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

19422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the Springfield-Greene County Library start circulating video games before December 2029?

Oct 18, 12:38 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

37.17%chance

1300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

100

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8251

OptionProbability

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Augustus's Autobiography

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

The Cypria

Ovid's Medea

50

50

46

41

40

40

35

33

29

Will Everything Everywhere All At Once be preserved by the Library of Congress before Oppenheimer?

Mar 30, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.2%chance

8118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

225

What percentage of sought-after works will be discovered in the Herculaneum Library?

Mar 13, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.24%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

142

Will they announce a presidential library at Trump's Bedminster golf course by the end of 2028?

Aug 13, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will r/libgen (subreddit for Library Genesis) be working at the end of 2027?

Feb 20, 1:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.79%chance

356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

57

Mike Judge artworks preserved by Library of Congress as culturally or aesthetically significant before 2050

Dec 20, 11:57 PMDec 27, 2:59 PM

71.46%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

69

Biggest formal math library in 2040 HoTT-based?

Oct 13, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.6%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will Oppenheimer be preserved by the Library of Congress before EOY 2035?

Dec 30, 8:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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