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Prediction markets for LIC

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

12%chance

353316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?

Sep 5, 7:19 PMNov 13, 7:59 AM

22.88%chance

71550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

545

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.04%chance

111540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

970

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

221255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

913

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

20.56%chance

20801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

988

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

20553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

711

Will I regret getting a driver's license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 11:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.51%chance

15445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

916

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.06%chance

14416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

1205

Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027

Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

12332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

953

Montana's experimental treatment centers licensed by EOY 2025

May 19, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.73%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Can Jessica From LIC+ Finish 50 XLBs at DTF in one sitting?

Oct 2, 11:16 PMSep 30, 3:59 PM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

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