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Prediction markets for Life Sciences

What will I be diagnosed with?

Apr 28, 10:16 AMOct 22, 9:20 AM

221618

OptionProbability

Autism

ADHD

Attachment Disorder

Dysthymia

C-PDSD

Personality Disorder

Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)

Substance Use Disorder

Bipolar Disorder

Long COVID

100

100

60

51

33

31

28

23

17

11

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

3600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.08%chance

7400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

32

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

Jun 4, 4:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

8198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will at least 1/5 of UC Berkeley students be wearing AR/VR goggles/glasses (to study) at the campus library by eoy 2028

Feb 19, 6:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

152

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

36

29

11

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will I live and work in the US before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.71%chance

771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

165

Will the Square Kilometer Array detect biosignature by the end of 2050 ?

Jul 19, 12:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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