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Prediction markets for Life Sciences

Will Ray Kurzweil live to be a centenarian?

Oct 14, 11:52 PMFeb 13, 4:59 AM

12.19%chance

11957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

110

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

4900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.08%chance

7400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

32

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Longevity escape velocity before 2030?

Jun 4, 4:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.56%chance

8198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

Will Grigori Perelman accept kudos before Christmas Eve 2030?

Sep 5, 10:47 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

24.14%chance

7185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

74

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5110

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

36

29

11

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will I live and work in the US before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.71%chance

771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

165

Will the Square Kilometer Array detect biosignature by the end of 2050 ?

Jul 19, 12:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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