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Prediction markets for Life Sciences

Will Ray Kurzweil live to be a centenarian?

Oct 14, 11:52 PMFeb 13, 4:59 AM

12.19%chance

11957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

110

AI literacy will be a required subject in at least 10 US states' K-12 curriculum by January 2026

Mar 29, 8:30 PMFeb 1, 12:59 AM

2.29%chance

9915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

653

15

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.05%chance

11895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

767

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

Jul 11, 2:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.07%chance

5389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

485

21

In which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?

Nov 15, 4:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

72

59

45

Will a new species, previously unknown to science, be discovered in Lake Vostok by the end of 2025?

Aug 8, 10:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

10208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

127

I pay my debt by EOY 2025?

Sep 4, 9:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

10150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will at least 1/5 of UC Berkeley students be wearing AR/VR goggles/glasses (to study) at the campus library by eoy 2028

Feb 19, 6:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

152

In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?

Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

485

OptionProbability

2026-2030

2031-2040

2041-2050

2051-2060

2061-2070

2071-2080

2081-2090

2091-2100

2101-2110

2111-2120

2121-2130

35

27

8

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will I live and work in the US before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.71%chance

771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

165

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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