Light Reading News

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

YES

1224

780

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.62%chance

317578

OptionVotes

YES

8332

3592

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

2144

735

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

1259

945

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.83%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

743

Will Elon Musk apologize to his daughter Vivian before 2030?

Jun 7, 6:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.55%chance

20374

OptionVotes

YES

233

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Jun 29, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.58%chance

11238

OptionVotes

YES

1164

955

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will the "Hot Stove Theory of Iteration" be cited by someone important by EOY 2030?

Feb 8, 1:23 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.89%chance

965

OptionVotes

YES

232

195

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

Aug 31, 3:45 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.69%chance

560

OptionProbability

YES

248

135

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

265

222

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In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Will Elon Musk apologize to his daughter Vivian before 2030?

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will the "Hot Stove Theory of Iteration" be cited by someone important by EOY 2030?

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

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