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Prediction markets for Light Reading

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Dec 30, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.83%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

743

14

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Great Gatsby

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

64

61

57

56

50

50

43

41

19

Will Elon Musk apologize to his daughter Vivian before 2030?

Jun 7, 6:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16%chance

20368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Commercial application of quantum pseudo-telepathy by 2030?

Jun 29, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.43%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

953

Will the "Hot Stove Theory of Iteration" be cited by someone important by EOY 2030?

Feb 8, 1:23 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.89%chance

965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

195

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

Aug 31, 3:45 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.69%chance

560

OptionProbability

NO

YES

248

135

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

NO

265

222

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