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Prediction markets for Lighthaven

Will people in 2050 talk about Lighthaven the same way they talk about Bell Labs now?

Sep 3, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.8%chance

126264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

330

Where will the next Manifest X be after Manifest X DC?

Sep 23, 1:12 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

213565

OptionProbability

New York

Montreal

Boston

Other

Surprise! Washington, DC again!

Texas (any major city)

There is no other Manifest X by the end of 2026

Prospera

London

Paris

Berlin

San Francisco Bay Area (excluding Lighthaven)

47

11

10

7

6

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven?

Nov 13, 6:57 PMDec 31, 6:50 PM

52272

OptionProbability

Q2 2026

Q1 2026

Q3 2026

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

Q1 2028

Q2 2028

Q3 2028

Q4 2025

16

15

12

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

1

When will I be able to call a Waymo to get from San Francisco to Lighthaven in Berkeley?

Feb 22, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

101107

OptionProbability

Q1 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q2 2027

Other

Q2 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2026

Q4 2027

Q3 2025

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q4 2025

21

19

17

13

7

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

Will it be possible for me to travel from San Francisco to Lighthaven in a Waymo in 2026?

May 21, 2:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

211050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will "Toss a bitcoin to your Lightcone – LW + Light..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 13, 10:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.91%chance

2550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

931

Lighthaven hosts furry event or convention before 2028?

Jul 9, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.66%chance

7334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

36

Will anyone be kicked out of Inkhaven's April cohort?

Mar 25, 3:33 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

46%chance

5205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will "My Interview With Cade Metz on His Reporting ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 23, 12:54 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

Will latch.bio, retro.bio, mox, or lighthaven get a libernovo Omni dynamic ergonomic chair by eoy2031

Nov 9, 12:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will Lighthaven replace its coffee-makers with lower-plastic (or zero-plastic) coffee-makers between 2024 and EOY2026?

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will one of Tom Chivers' books (eg AI does not hate you) appear on Lighthaven bookshelves by EOY2026?

Aug 6, 3:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.04%chance

443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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