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Prediction markets for Lighting

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90079

6480

Will Portland MAX light rail extend to Vancouver WA before end of 2030

Sep 26, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.57%chance

1283017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46054

2277

Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?

Aug 16, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.26%chance

7247679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

611

First year the US has a public drone light show with 10,000+ drones?

Sep 7, 6:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1515304

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028+

2025

39

39

16

6

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Mar 4, 2:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.62%chance

916390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

760

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

There are no aliens or distinguishable alien materials within 100 light-years of Earth.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.85%chance

391890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

980

By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion?

Oct 4, 5:17 PMDec 31, 6:59 AM

23.21%chance

271494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

927

Will any human-made object go faster than 1% of the speed of light before 2060?

Mar 1, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.72%chance

341247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

812

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

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