Likely Republican News

Sherrod Brown Launches 2026 Comeback Bid Against Ohio’s Husted

2 days ago

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

44.99%chance

559183406

OptionVotes

YES

4796

3893

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15872233

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19534399

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Nov 8, 3:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

67%chance

146224

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?

Sep 2, 11:10 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.43%chance

716223

OptionVotes

YES

1310

434

Will Republicans abolish the filibuster before the end of 2028?

Apr 8, 12:37 PMJan 10, 5:59 AM

12.3%chance

214916

OptionVotes

YES

5015

4904

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.59%chance

143292

OptionVotes

YES

2522

397

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

YES

1066

868

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Apr 10, 5:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

23.1%chance

551530

OptionVotes

YES

1668

1420

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Jan 10, 9:01 PMNov 16, 5:59 AM

40.51%chance

16816

OptionVotes

YES

1144

713

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

41715

OptionVotes

YES

1055

1010

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

Mar 7, 5:55 AMApr 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

8278

OptionVotes

YES

1273

953

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Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?

Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Republicans abolish the filibuster before the end of 2028?

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will either of Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2024 elections?

Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Will the winner of the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination contest in American Samoa win any other contest?

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