Likeness News

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

154151387

OptionVotes

YES

50498

4250

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

667148166

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will the Wordle-like game "Fermi Questions" reach 100,000 unique visitors by December 31, 2025?

Aug 3, 3:32 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2.42%chance

20864319

OptionVotes

YES

15782

550

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.64%chance

18239535

OptionVotes

YES

12025

8721

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1924543

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

It will have four playable characters on release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

2832

661

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.29%chance

7214477

OptionVotes

YES

1411

356

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.08%chance

5312290

OptionVotes

YES

19219

7438

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.74%chance

306234

OptionVotes

YES

14661

6824

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183986

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

Before 2026

Do you like 52% odds?

Dec 8, 5:27 PMDec 20, 5:17 PM

52.43%chance

312287

OptionVotes

YES

1009

992

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

OptionProbability

Gage & Tollner

Dhamaka

Theodora

Atoboy

Tadhana

Semma

Dirt Candy

Rezdora

Crown Shy

Atera

Farra

Zou Zou

Likeness News

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will the Wordle-like game "Fermi Questions" reach 100,000 unique visitors by December 31, 2025?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Do you like 52% odds?

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

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