OptionVotes
NO
YES
4353
340
1061
942
1073
767
OptionProbability
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
New PM other than Netanyahu
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
New primary elections for Likud before the general elections
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
Elections held before October 27th
Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts
Parliament dissolves before budget deadline (end of March)
100
60
57
51
50
48
44
38
30
29
15
0
Hung Knesset (non-Arab) -Opposition plurality
Hung Knesset - coalition plurality
Another Netanyahu Cabinet
Opposition Majority
33
25
22
21
