Limit Break News

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

YES

1074

582

Trump breaks the two term limit

Jan 8, 12:14 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

5.74%chance

4410359

OptionVotes

YES

4051

247

What year will the Giant Pumpkin world record break 1300 kg (2866lb)

Oct 22, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58910

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59%chance

162629

OptionVotes

YES

1296

429

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

1215

823

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Oct 10, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.32%chance

201355

OptionVotes

YES

1346

775

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

31152

OptionVotes

YES

2085

490

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Aug 13, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.85%chance

71129

OptionVotes

YES

2075

482

Will using paper towels to wipe my ass result in major plumbing issues?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMJun 1, 11:54 PM

28%chance

16988

OptionVotes

YES

170

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

1116

1014

Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026?

Mar 5, 9:35 PMDec 30, 11:00 PM

9317

OptionProbability

Yes

Yes, but Crimea,Donetsk,Luhansk etc. will be under Russia control.

Yes, all territories that Ukraine had before 2014 will be Ukraine again.

Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity

Aug 6, 3:24 AMJan 1, 3:44 AM

7194

OptionProbability

String Theory/M-Theory (replacing point particles with extended objects in higher dimensions)

Other

No opinion

Gravity is not quantum

Hořava–Lifshitz Gravity (breaking speed of light limit at high energies)

Causal Sets (Discrete spacetime atoms, only connected by causal relations)

Causal Dynamical Triangulations (gluing triangulated space in layers of time)

Loop Quantum Gravity (quantizing areas and volumes in spacetime)

Asymptotic Safety (spacetime becomes a fractal on small scales)

Limit Break News

Prediction markets for Limit Break

Prediction markets for Limit Break

Prediction markets for Limit Break

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Trump breaks the two term limit

What year will the Giant Pumpkin world record break 1300 kg (2866lb)

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Will using paper towels to wipe my ass result in major plumbing issues?

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026?

Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity

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