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Prediction markets for Limit Break

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

564

Trump breaks the two term limit

Jan 8, 12:14 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

4612368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

What year will the Giant Pumpkin world record break 1300 kg (2866lb)

Oct 22, 12:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58910

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

2023

2024

32

16

16

16

14

4

1

1

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.71%chance

216649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2923

78

When will Russia attack Europe with military force?

Nov 18, 7:18 AMMar 19, 10:59 PM

464399

OptionProbability

Never

Before end of 2029

In 2034 or later

Before end of 2033

31

25

23

21

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Oct 10, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.32%chance

201355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

775

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

31152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2085

490

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Aug 13, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.85%chance

71129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2075

482

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

1014

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will the 2027 World Series of Poker Main Event have a record number of entries?

May 28, 7:10 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.88%chance

552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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