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Prediction markets for Limited Partners

Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

Oct 10, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.32%chance

201355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

775

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

65.02%chance

8737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

733

Valve accepts ACH/SEPA/etc before next censorship scandal?

Sep 24, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:13 PM

75.91%chance

4558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.42%chance

9507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

26

Will the sports gear tracking app reach at least 1,000 registered users by 31 December 2026?

Jan 8, 3:54 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

60%chance

10491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Waymo generally available in London when?

Oct 18, 2:11 PMJul 1, 2:07 PM

14469

OptionProbability

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2027

Not before July 2027

88

80

80

20

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

7221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will my family continue to call me fat by 2035?

Jul 23, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.67%chance

6199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

130

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

7159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

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