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Prediction markets for Line of Control

When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine end? ($1000M sub)

Oct 2, 10:56 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

20662489

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030+

2025

2028

2029

2024

2023

35

26

15

10

9

4

1

0

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

21.94%chance

19938063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

837

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?

Oct 30, 9:24 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

4.48%chance

7416032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3193

687

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.49%chance

488207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

942

Will Trump say that Moon should become a state before the end of his term?

Feb 11, 7:37 AMJan 22, 5:59 AM

16.74%chance

618173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2230

448

Which Song of Ice and Fire fan theories are true?

Dec 3, 3:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

335784

OptionProbability

R+L=J

Mad Queen Dany

Shireen burnination

Nightlamp

King Bran

Jojen-paste

The Pink Letter not by Ramsey

Lemongate

Somebody is Euron

Aegon is a Blackfyre

Dany will burn the house with the Red Door

Time-traveling Bran

Arya kills Lady Stoneheart

Marwyn is Maegor Brightflame

Gerion Lannister is the Shrouded Lord

Bolt-On

Time-traveling fetus

98

89

88

88

86

68

66

60

34

32

31

31

31

26

26

19

5

What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?

Apr 2, 1:15 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

223235

OptionProbability

Callisto

Ganymede

Europa

Mercury

Titan

Venus

Io

Other

51

18

16

10

3

1

1

1

When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby

Aug 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

142969

OptionProbability

In or after 2025

In or after 2030

In or after 2040

In or after 2050

In 2024

99

56

45

23

0

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6693

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Finland

Other

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

79

7

6

3

3

3

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

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