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Prediction markets for Linea

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.99%chance

361784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2201

1644

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

15%chance

51407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

29.95%chance

3791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

723

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

41.41%chance

2560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

864

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

58.57%chance

5414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

841

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.56%chance

10334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

55.07%chance

4323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

903

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2772

2450

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Dec 13, 11:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Old Catholic

ICAB

Liberal Catholic

Mystical (directly by Jesus an apostle etc)

All the above

Larping Thuc bishop

Ghost of Ngo Dinh Thuc

18

14

14

14

14

12

12

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Do Recurring Slope Lineae on Mars involve liquid water?

May 3, 9:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.33%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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