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Prediction markets for Lineage

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.16%chance

343827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

926

Will Nod be able to publish a model of the covid outbreak in Wuhan, before 2026?

Jan 24, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.07%chance

92689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2699

370

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.63%chance

251697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1568

726

Which Artemis HLS system will land on the Moon

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11556

OptionProbability

Starship HLS

Blue Moon

Dynetics HLS

75

57

13

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

38

27

22

5

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Velogames continuously exist through 2033?

Nov 9, 8:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.14%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

36

Will Starlab Space Station be crewed before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 3:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

31.13%chance

10166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

175

What will be the name of the third Blue Origin rocket?

Jan 4, 8:29 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

779

OptionProbability

New Armstrong

Other

New Borman

New Young

New White

New Lovell

New Grissom

New Schirra

69

15

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Gut microbes (some strains) have recently evolved to make their host hungry, as a response to cheap food availability

Jul 26, 4:31 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

90

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