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Prediction markets for Lineage

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.91%chance

353877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

976

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.51%chance

261747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

776

Which Artemis HLS system will land on the Moon

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12818

OptionProbability

Starship HLS

Blue Moon

Dynetics HLS

80

57

8

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

38

27

22

5

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is Porifera or Ctenophora sister to the rest of the animals?

Jan 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 8:11 PM

3168

OptionProbability

Porifera

Ctenophora

None of the above

51

35

14

Will Velogames continuously exist through 2033?

Nov 9, 8:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.14%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

36

Will Starlab Space Station be crewed before the end of 2030?

Jan 31, 3:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

31.13%chance

10166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

175

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Dec 13, 11:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Old Catholic

ICAB

Liberal Catholic

Mystical (directly by Jesus an apostle etc)

All the above

Larping Thuc bishop

Ghost of Ngo Dinh Thuc

18

14

14

14

14

12

12

What will be the name of the third Blue Origin rocket?

Jan 4, 8:29 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

779

OptionProbability

New Armstrong

Other

New Borman

New Young

New White

New Lovell

New Grissom

New Schirra

69

15

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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