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Prediction markets for Lineage

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.91%chance

353877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

976

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3]

May 3, 12:21 PMMay 10, 12:21 PM

98.03%chance

291453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

525

189

Which Artemis HLS system will land on the Moon

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13827

OptionProbability

Starship HLS

Blue Moon

Dynetics HLS

80

62

8

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

38

27

22

5

4

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is Porifera or Ctenophora sister to the rest of the animals?

Jan 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 8:11 PM

6333

OptionProbability

Porifera

Ctenophora

None of the above

56

28

16

Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5]

May 4, 5:43 AMMay 18, 5:43 AM

44.43%chance

17237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

635

553

Will Velogames continuously exist through 2033?

Nov 9, 8:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

90.14%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

36

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Dec 13, 11:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

Old Catholic

ICAB

Liberal Catholic

Mystical (directly by Jesus an apostle etc)

All the above

Larping Thuc bishop

Ghost of Ngo Dinh Thuc

18

14

14

14

14

12

12

Will BASIS (the Berkeley ai safety club) still exist in 2030?

Feb 17, 7:25 AMAug 24, 6:59 AM

64.11%chance

472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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