Linear News

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

412783

OptionVotes

YES

2594

1587

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

14.75%chance

51424

OptionVotes

YES

1017

997

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

3810

OptionVotes

YES

1090

738

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

40.89%chance

2576

OptionVotes

YES

1077

876

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

51.43%chance

5545

OptionVotes

YES

1029

972

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

59.33%chance

6506

OptionVotes

YES

1208

828

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

10388

OptionVotes

YES

271

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6145

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Other

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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