Linear News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

MrBeast ad progress bars still non-linear, in early 2026?

May 30, 8:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.12%chance

91795

OptionVotes

YES

2723

367

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.99%chance

361784

OptionVotes

YES

2201

1644

Will I successfully graduate college in Spring?

Nov 26, 4:53 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

78.06%chance

12886

OptionVotes

YES

1886

530

Who will have found the most Sidekick bugs when the linearizer launches?

Oct 4, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1753

OptionProbability

kissinger

bad news

sachin

Nick

Bayesian

s0m1

Other

avi

appoota

mason

MehtaEthics

sof

Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic

Apr 24, 10:41 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

13637

OptionProbability

Logarithmic

Linear

Exponential

Other

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

38.29%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

1270

788

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.56%chance

10334

OptionVotes

YES

217

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

MrBeast ad progress bars still non-linear, in early 2026?

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Will I successfully graduate college in Spring?

Who will have found the most Sidekick bugs when the linearizer launches?

Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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