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Prediction markets for Linear

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033

Oct 16, 7:47 AMJan 1, 5:01 AM

78%chance

434850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

691

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.32%chance

351734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2250

1594

MrBeast ad progress bars still non-linear, in early 2026?

May 30, 8:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.14%chance

81465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2393

418

Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?

Jul 11, 8:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

78.58%chance

20987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

710

Who will have found the most Sidekick bugs when the linearizer launches?

Oct 4, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1753

OptionProbability

kissinger

Bayesian

bad news

sachin

Nick

s0m1

Other

avi

appoota

mason

MehtaEthics

sof

62

8

6

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

913

Will @spiderduckpig profit growth rate be linear, exponential, or logarithmic

Apr 24, 10:41 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10534

OptionProbability

Logarithmic

Linear

Exponential

Other

61

37

2

0

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.56%chance

10334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.38%chance

276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

757

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

49

23

15

13

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