Linear News

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.96%chance

443811

OptionVotes

YES

2708

1538

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

19%chance

62385

OptionVotes

YES

1044

785

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

29.56%chance

41529

OptionVotes

YES

1091

734

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.02%chance

211498

OptionVotes

YES

395

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

54.47%chance

111334

OptionVotes

YES

1094

914

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

40.77%chance

21279

OptionVotes

YES

1075

879

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

47.83%chance

6882

OptionVotes

YES

1045

958

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

2172

OptionVotes

YES

2772

2450

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Future particle colliders

Aug 17, 3:32 AMJan 2, 4:29 AM

675

OptionProbability

A muon collider will start construction in the US before the end of year 2050.

The International Linear Collider (ILC) will start construction in Japan before the end of year 2050.

A final decision is made by the CERN Council to not proceed with the Future Circular Collider (FCC) project by the end of year 2040.

The Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC) project is approved by the Chinese government and features in the five-year plan of 2026-2030.

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Future particle colliders

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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