Linear News

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.6%chance

464186

OptionVotes

YES

3083

1402

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:14 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

17.89%chance

72443

OptionVotes

YES

1032

836

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.92%chance

241803

OptionVotes

YES

439

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

Jan 11, 3:45 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

63.44%chance

121580

OptionVotes

YES

1318

759

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:13 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

29.49%chance

41531

OptionVotes

YES

1091

735

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Jan 24, 9:10 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

46.18%chance

31395

OptionVotes

YES

1164

763

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

Jan 11, 3:42 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

46.86%chance

7902

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

Oct 29, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.29%chance

3672

OptionVotes

YES

3272

2101

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

Dec 26, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13204

OptionProbability

He will have a podcast.

Write a book

He will have an online streaming show not associated with a linear TV network.

He will have a show on another traditional broadcast or cable network.

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 21, 8:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

2122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

Linear News

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Prediction markets for Linear

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

How many House seats will the Republicans flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2026?

Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)

How many House seats will the Democrats flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Republican Senate seats after 2026 election? (45-55, linear)

How many housing units will California authorize, 2025-2028? (linear, 250k-750k)

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

What will Stephen Colbert do after Late Night ends?

Will "Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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