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Prediction markets for LINK

How many Manifold users will link their account to a futarchy that pays real money?

Aug 13, 7:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.42%chance

3810099

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7781

6334

JFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040

Jun 8, 2:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.09%chance

226019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2169

897

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

Will Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?

Aug 23, 9:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.75%chance

31505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2505

399

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.41%chance

141235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will Link speak in the Zelda movie?

Nov 12, 10:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.68%chance

221041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1896

872

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

65.83%chance

5722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will Die Linke successfully seize at least 200,000 housing units in Berlin before EOY 2031?

Sep 21, 6:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

5630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

769

Under US law, does dynamic linking against a library create a derivative work?

May 31, 12:54 AMJan 2, 1:47 AM

30.53%chance

7603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

663

Is there a significant link between gpt2-chatbot and the firing of Sam Altman?

May 1, 11:54 AMMar 8, 10:59 PM

6.31%chance

7421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

521

55

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

37%chance

5335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Useful links

Aug 12, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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