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Prediction markets for Liquid AI

Will any large company leave California because of SB-1047? (2025)

Jun 12, 4:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

186794

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Completely leave

Move employees elsewhere

98

1

0

0

Will any large company leave California because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

184169

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Completely leave

Move employees elsewhere

Move model training or inference elsewhere

96

1

1

1

Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)

Jun 12, 5:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

164156

OptionProbability

Nothing will happen

Move employees elsewhere

Move model training or inference elsewhere

Completely leave

94

2

2

1

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131937

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

47

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

When will the first Bittensor ($TAO) halving occur? (Eastern Time)

Oct 25, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31079

OptionProbability

Dec 14 (Sun)

Dec 15 (Mon)

Dec 13 (Sat)

Dec 03 (Wed)

Dec 04 (Thu)

Dec 05 (Fri)

Dec 06 (Sat)

Dec 07 (Sun)

Dec 08 (Mon)

Dec 09 (Tue)

Dec 10 (Wed)

Dec 11 (Thu)

Dec 12 (Fri)

Dec 16 (Tue)

Dec 17 (Wed)

Dec 18 (Thu)

Dec 19 (Fri)

Other

33

19

18

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

Mar 31, 4:54 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.5%chance

5281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

79

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

145

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