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Prediction markets for Liquid AI

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

648

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

What price will Bitcoin hit by March 2026? (add your prediction)

Feb 2, 2:00 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

92371

OptionProbability

$75,001 - $80,000

$80,001 - $85,000

$85,001 - $90,000

$95,001 - $100,000

$70,001 - $75,000

$90,001 - $95,000

$100,001 - $105,000

$105,001 - $110,000

$110,001 - $115,000

$115,001 - $120,000

$120,001 - $130,000

$70,000 or below

$130,001 - $150,000

$150,001 or above

Other

38

24

6

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will Bitcoin close above 85k by Sunday 7pm EST

Feb 2, 4:37 PMFeb 8, 6:59 PM

8.51%chance

131011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

31

Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event

Mar 31, 4:54 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

87.5%chance

5281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

79

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

3190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

145

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