Liquid Fund News

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

262359

OptionProbability

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

What will be the final net IRR for Thoma Bravo XV? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.04%chance

62250

OptionProbability

YES

449

249

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

YES

1183

892

What will be the final net IRR for Berkshire Fund X? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.25%chance

72148

OptionProbability

YES

464

271

What will be the final net IRR for Carlyle Partners VIII? (X100)

Dec 2, 7:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.59%chance

52033

OptionProbability

YES

409

269

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.46%chance

4215

OptionVotes

YES

1073

932

BANK insolvent before April 2026

Jul 22, 5:19 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

6145

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

318

145

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

Dec 7, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.85%chance

2105

OptionProbability

YES

375

196

What will be the final net IRR for Siris Partners V? (X100)

Dec 6, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63%chance

4104

OptionProbability

YES

386

251

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

Dec 9, 8:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.86%chance

487

OptionProbability

YES

395

245

What will be the final net IRR for Symphony Technology Group VII? (X100)

Dec 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.21%chance

561

OptionProbability

YES

388

283

Liquid Fund News

Prediction markets for Liquid Fund

Prediction markets for Liquid Fund

Prediction markets for Liquid Fund

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

What will be the final net IRR for Thoma Bravo XV? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Berkshire Fund X? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Carlyle Partners VIII? (X100)

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

BANK insolvent before April 2026

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

What will be the final net IRR for Apollo Investment Fund X? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Siris Partners V? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

What will be the final net IRR for Symphony Technology Group VII? (X100)

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