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March 2026 AI model releases

Mar 1, 4:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

13344242

OptionProbability

GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)

GPT-5.4 (includes GPT-5.4 Codex or other non-Pro variants)

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview

GPT-5.4 Pro

Grok 4.20 (out of beta)

Minimax M2.6/M2.7

Gemma 4

DeepSeek V4-Lite

GLM-5-Code

Kimi K3

Haiku 4.6

Gemini 3.1 Flash Preview

DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5

Gemini 3.1 Flash GA

Gemini 3.1 Pro GA

Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)

GPT-5.3-Thinking

GPT-5.3-Pro

Deepseek V4 (Full)

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite GA

Sonnet 4.7

Grok 5

Opus 4.7

Minimax M3

Sonnet 5

100

100

100

100

100

100

23

19

18

14

12

9

9

8

8

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

1

Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1620902

OptionProbability

Can Xue

Cristina Rivera Garza

Mircea Cărtărescu

Haruki Murakami

Enrique Vila-Matas

Gerald Murnane

Anne Carson

César Aira

Amitav Ghosh

Alexis Wright

Salman Rushdie

Elena Ferrante

Jamaica Kincaid

Michel Houellebecq

Margaret Atwood

Thomas Pynchon

Christian Kracht

Raul Zurita

Péter Nádas

Stephen King

38

34

31

30

30

27

27

27

26

26

25

24

22

20

19

19

18

18

16

10

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

April 2026 AI model releases

Mar 26, 11:13 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

575390

OptionProbability

Minimax M3 (or any Minimax model)

Kimi K3 (or any Kimi model)

Gemini 3.1 Flash

Gemma 4

GPT-5.5 (or 5.x variant)

DeepSeek V4 (or any variant)

Gemini 3.1 Pro (any new variant)

Claude Haiku 4.6 (or 4.x variant)

Claude Opus 4.7 (or 4.x variant)

Claude Sonnet 4.7 (or 4.x variant)

Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite (any new variant)

Meta Avocado (or any Meta model)

Claude Sonnet 5

Claude Opus 5

Claude Mythos

Grok 5 (or any Grok model)

DeepSeek V3.3 (or 3.x variant)

GPT-6

65

65

64

61

59

53

46

44

30

27

19

19

19

18

18

16

14

12

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

Feb 5, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181992

OptionProbability

Released by 2026-12-31

OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model

Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)

Face capture cameras on all new models

Weigh less than quest 3

Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model

Will come in multiple color options

Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000

Option to buy without controllers

Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450

Hands as Controllers

Varifocal displays

External front-facing display

Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro

Released by 2025-12-31

Released by 2024-12-31

85

77

67

67

60

47

43

42

42

38

34

29

10

10

5

2

When will human literary translators become unnecessary?

Dec 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12.84%chance

211146

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1153

1050

London Bridge literally falls down in the next 5 years (like the rhyme)

Jan 17, 4:25 AMJan 17, 4:24 AM

5.12%chance

12959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will qiaochu yuan win the Nobel prize in Peace or in literature?

May 13, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.95%chance

5612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.02%chance

19414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

Will there be a Deepseek V4-lite?

Feb 24, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.87%chance

4261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

361

28

Will the JWST discover exoplanets with 'carbon-lite' atmospheres in the next 15 years?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

86.4%chance

8194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

86

Will there be a sequel to Doki Doki Literature Club before EOY 2030?

Feb 21, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.24%chance

15134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

966

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