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Prediction markets for Llama

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.74%chance

3464174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14016

7134

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1711580

OptionProbability

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

93

6

1

1

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

10.71%chance

226225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

346

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

343145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

526

Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight?

Apr 23, 5:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.11%chance

272145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

425

Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena?

Aug 8, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.02%chance

171141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world?

Oct 23, 12:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

181098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

843

In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.

Aug 18, 8:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6%chance

16439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Will lucky llama speak before the end of 2025?

Feb 11, 1:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.97%chance

3242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?

Jul 9, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

72.19%chance

8196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?

Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

Between $1t and $5t

Between $500b and $1t

>$10tn

Between $5t and $10t

Between $100b and $500b

< $100bn

54

22

6

6

6

6

When will Llama 4 Behemoth weights become publicly available?

Sep 2, 3:53 PMSep 2, 3:45 PM

110

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