LLM Lab News

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Oct 12, 6:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

41.43%chance

443112

OptionVotes

YES

1189

841

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.11%chance

81537

OptionVotes

YES

1774

564

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

37.02%chance

331497

OptionVotes

YES

1174

749

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.76%chance

161379

OptionVotes

YES

1743

574

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 11:08 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

38.91%chance

151075

OptionVotes

YES

143

119

Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?

Aug 5, 6:50 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

36.17%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

1328

753

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Mar 3, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

132

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

985

LLM Lab News

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

AI Singularity (props)

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

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