LLM Lab News

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

132225

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

100

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

YES

1251

800

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

32.9%chance

311130

OptionVotes

YES

1291

686

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

1195

837

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.25%chance

5502

OptionVotes

YES

1312

762

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31%chance

10410

OptionVotes

YES

252

134

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 11:08 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

27.27%chance

9378

OptionVotes

YES

193

Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?

May 8, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.41%chance

16332

OptionVotes

YES

105

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

248

Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025?

Mar 11, 2:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.59%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

104

101

Lab protocol for safe TATP synthesis from fine-tuned LLM by 2025

Sep 18, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.44%chance

887

OptionVotes

YES

233

140

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Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025?

Lab protocol for safe TATP synthesis from fine-tuned LLM by 2025

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