LLM Lab News

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Oct 12, 6:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

41.43%chance

443112

OptionVotes

YES

1189

841

AI Singularity (props)

Mar 7, 12:48 PMMar 7, 12:48 PM

112783

OptionProbability

The top Elo score on the EQ-Bench Creative Writing v3 leaderboard exceeds 2000 before 2027-01-01

At least three major AI labs (xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind) release public multi-LLM agentic reasoning models before 2027-01-01

xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01

An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

37.02%chance

331497

OptionVotes

YES

1174

749

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.51%chance

81237

OptionVotes

YES

1474

678

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.85%chance

131165

OptionVotes

YES

1533

652

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 11:08 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

38.91%chance

151075

OptionVotes

YES

143

119

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

YES

178

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Apr 20, 3:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.02%chance

13293

OptionVotes

YES

248

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5194

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

124

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Mar 3, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

132

LLM Lab News

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Prediction markets for LLM Lab

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

AI Singularity (props)

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Latest stories