LMArena News

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.97%chance

1418493

OptionVotes

YES

2262

1776

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

4015278

OptionProbability

Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

100

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.26%chance

51300

OptionVotes

YES

2300

574

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

YES

1133

920

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.35%chance

15608

OptionVotes

YES

244

A 70B model beats Opus 4.7 on LMArena

Jun 28, 1:21 PMApr 1, 1:29 PM

6476

OptionProbability

Before Apr 2027

Before Mar 2027

Before Feb 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.28%chance

12404

OptionVotes

YES

211

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.55%chance

9346

OptionVotes

YES

144

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.38%chance

7344

OptionVotes

YES

294

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11247

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

13232

OptionVotes

YES

259

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6193

OptionVotes

YES

221

LMArena News

Prediction markets for LMArena

Prediction markets for LMArena

Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Elon Musk (props)

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

A 70B model beats Opus 4.7 on LMArena

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Latest stories