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Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?

Apr 21, 9:15 PMMay 21, 9:12 PM

98.67%chance

184524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3860

17

Which company has the best AI model end of June 2026? (LMArena)

Feb 4, 7:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

283139

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

58

25

13

1

1

1

0

0

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.33%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

763

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

9362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?

Jan 12, 12:50 AMAug 3, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

15313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

13232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9216

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

Other

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

27

26

22

11

5

4

3

2

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.74%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.43%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

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