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Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.34%chance

1318399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2377

1694

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.31%chance

4550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

747

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

14477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

A 70B model beats Opus 4.7 on LMArena

Jun 28, 1:21 PMApr 1, 1:29 PM

5376

OptionProbability

Before Apr 2027

Before Mar 2027

Before Feb 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Aug 2026

50

46

40

35

31

24

19

11

8

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

13232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26

Jun 29, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.13%chance

13226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.84%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9216

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

Other

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

27

26

22

11

5

4

3

2

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

7171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

58

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.47%chance

4136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

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