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Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

Which company has the best AI model end of June 2026? (LMArena)

Feb 4, 7:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

355311

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

79

13

6

1

0

0

0

0

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.31%chance

4550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

747

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.54%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

13232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9216

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

Other

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

27

26

22

11

5

4

3

2

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.93%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.57%chance

3101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

87

LMArena announces monetization by mid-2026?

Jun 27, 1:23 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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