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Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

Which company has the best AI model end of March 2026? (LMArena)

Jan 3, 10:59 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

336867

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

96

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Which company has the best AI model end of June 2026? (LMArena)

Feb 4, 7:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

172150

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

56

27

8

5

2

1

1

1

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.33%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

763

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

9362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 12:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

9330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?

Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

13232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9216

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

Other

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

27

26

22

11

5

4

3

2

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.74%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

LMArena announces monetization by mid-2026?

Jun 27, 1:23 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.88%chance

327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

85

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