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LOA News

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

Mar 13, 1:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

614058

OptionProbability

432.2501-432.5

432 or less

432.0001-432.25

432.50001-432.6

432.60001-432.7

432.70001-432.8

432.80001-432.9

432.90001-433

433.0001-433.25

433.2501 or higher

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

87.53%chance

629802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

449

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Looking for loans

Nov 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.65%chance

4798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

293

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.53%chance

14723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

928

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

11509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

455

58

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.18%chance

16473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

35

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?

Mar 31, 4:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.98%chance

1105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?

May 20, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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