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Prediction markets for LOA

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

87.53%chance

629802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

449

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

Apr 16, 3:45 PMJun 9, 3:36 PM

117419

OptionProbability

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by more than a year

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by one year or less

Tumbles is not late to pay back a loan

98

2

0

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

Will @Orangey be late to pay back a loan?

Oct 21, 5:56 PMApr 13, 5:53 PM

25%chance

63019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

Mar 13, 1:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1613

OptionProbability

432 or less

432.0001-432.25

432.2501-432.5

432.50001-432.6

432.60001-432.7

432.70001-432.8

432.80001-432.9

432.30001-433

433.0001-433.25

433.2501 or higher

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

10

8

6

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.62%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

944

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

Dec 25, 7:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.46%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

89

Will the Beijing Loach (Cobitis beijingensis) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 6, 10:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.12%chance

382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

449

Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030

Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.91%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?

May 20, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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