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Prediction markets for LOA

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

87.53%chance

629802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2079

449

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?

Feb 17, 2:50 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

3.22%chance

10813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

617

15

Looking for loans

Nov 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.65%chance

3796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

293

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

11509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

455

58

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.62%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

944

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.62%chance

16472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

34

By 2040, there will be a growth boom in a developing country fueled by uncollateralized cryptocurrency loans.

Feb 12, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

82

Will San Francisco have a public bank issue at least one loan before January 1, 2028?

Feb 23, 12:11 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.37%chance

263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

22

Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?

May 20, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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