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Resided in the same state as the incident

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

US citizen

White

used a bolt action rifle

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Male

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

20-27 years old

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

ectomorph body type

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

Will plead guilty

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Is named Tyler Robinson

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Hunter

iphone user

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

disliked Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

Strongly opposes zionism

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Will kill again (including suicide)

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

has used the word yiff in written communication

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

was prescribed psychiatric medication

Owns a fursuit

Participates in this market

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

psychedelics user

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Bluesky account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Current or previous student at University of Utah

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Is right wing

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Had diagnosed mental illness

Femboy

White Nationalist

Left-handed

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

History of domestic violence

History of illegal drug addiction

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Ex law enforcement

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Had felony conviction previously

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Incel

groyper

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

is Mossad

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Was a student at UVU

Involved in Effective Altruism

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

Parent

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

decel

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Married

Manifold assists with his capture

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Gunplay

On screen fatalities

Bond will be a man

Bond drives a car

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

London will appear on screen

World capital other than London appears on screen

Car chase scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Bond drinks a martini

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Blue-eyed Bond

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Bond flys an aircraft

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Skydiving

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

Bond commits arson

Bond receives a gunshot wound

Oral sex

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

The title will refer to life and/or death

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Death of a Bond love interest

James Bond plays poker

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Wilhelm scream

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond is LQBTQ+

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

Jetpack

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Bond rides an animal

Nazis (neo- counts)

An EMP device plays a central role.

At least one named character below 18 years old

Canada is shown on screen

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Orgy

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

Mexico is shown on screen

Cryptocurrency is referenced

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

A hamburger appears on screen

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Will feature something that can turn invisible

Bond goes to space

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Pirates

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Bond plays Russian roulette

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Bond uses chopsticks

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

It will be directed by a woman

Bond dies

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

The fourth wall is broken

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Bond is vegan

Released in 2026

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business)

(4) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm with intent to use against another person)

(11) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A FORGED INSTRUMENT IN THE SECOND DEGREE

(7) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (firearm silencer)

(8) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Glock magazine)

(9) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Magpul magazine)

(6) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (assault weapon)

(10) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE FOURTH DEGREE

(3) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE

(1) MURDER IN THE FIRST DEGREE

NO

Below 400

400 - 499

500 - 599

600 - 699

700 - 799

800 - 899

900 - 1000

NO

NO

NO