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Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Urban scene

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

Car chase scene

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Bond tells ≥1 joke

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

Bond drinks a martini

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Sex scene

World capital other than London appears on screen

Hacking electronics of some form

Q appears

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Someone in the movie says the title

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

The main theme song will be sung by a female

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

At least a portion filmed in Canada

A scene shows James Bond naked

Blue-eyed Bond

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Death of a Bond love interest

Bond gets slapped

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

Prison/jail scene

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Black market trafficking

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond drives a boat

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Nazis (neo- counts)

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Oral sex

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Desert scene

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond has facial hair

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Bond wears a mask

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond will be in a submarine

Bond goes to space

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

Mexico is shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

An EMP device plays a central role.

At least one named character below 18 years old

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Canada is shown on screen

Sharks

Orgy

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

Will feature something that can turn invisible

A pinball machine will appear.

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Underwater combat

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Bond is blond

Pirates

Assplay

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

Bond won't be Caucasian

A hamburger appears on screen

Bond uses a VR headset

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Bond has a neck tattoo

Nuclear explosion

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

Bond plays Russian roulette

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Gay sex scene

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Any character says the word "anime"

Vampires

Bond vapes

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

The fourth wall is broken

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

NO

(1) MURDER IN THE FIRST DEGREE

(5) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm outside of home/place of business)

(4) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE SECOND DEGREE (possession of loaded firearm with intent to use against another person)

(11) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A FORGED INSTRUMENT IN THE SECOND DEGREE

(7) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (firearm silencer)

(8) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Glock magazine)

(9) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (Magpul magazine)

(6) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE THIRD DEGREE (assault weapon)

(10) CRIMINAL POSSESSION OF A WEAPON IN THE FOURTH DEGREE

(2) MURDER IN THE SECOND DEGREE AS A CRIME OF TERRORISM

YES

4 or more new tracks added

200cc mode added

8 or more new tracks added

A new land mass is directly connected to existing open world by bridge, tunnel, flying, or other way without loading screen

Traditional 3 lap race mode in online matchmaking added

12 or more new tracks added

Animal Crossing character or track is added

Zelda character or track is added

Splatoon character or track is added

Significant battle mode update

Pilot error

Mechanical problem or other technical malfunction

Cargo load shift

Sabotage or terrorism (from non-crew), including explosives in cargo

Windshear or similar adverse weather conditions

Fuel problem

Engine problem

Deliberate action of crew

Biosphere integrity

Climate change

Biochemical flow

Novel entities

Land-system change

Freshwater change

Ocean acidification

Atmospheric aerosol loading

NO

NO