Loans News

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3269392

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

Resolves No at end of 2025

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

303538

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.18%chance

16473

OptionVotes

YES

282

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

YES

138

will i be late to pay a loan before 2027?

Jan 1, 10:47 PMJan 1, 10:45 PM

27%chance

4155

OptionVotes

YES

164

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

Dec 25, 7:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.46%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

143

By 2040, there will be a growth boom in a developing country fueled by uncollateralized cryptocurrency loans.

Feb 12, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

376

OptionVotes

YES

162

Loans News

Prediction markets for Loans

Prediction markets for Loans

Prediction markets for Loans

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Will @Orangey be late to pay back a loan?

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Looking for loans

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Will Manifold add Free Loans on Liquidity by EOY 2026?

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

will i be late to pay a loan before 2027?

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

By 2040, there will be a growth boom in a developing country fueled by uncollateralized cryptocurrency loans.

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What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?