Loans News

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

273433

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

Will @Orangey be late to pay back a loan?

Oct 21, 5:56 PMApr 13, 5:53 PM

25%chance

63019

OptionVotes

YES

173

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

YES

1019

976

Looking for loans

Nov 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.65%chance

4798

OptionVotes

YES

382

293

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.53%chance

14723

OptionVotes

YES

1560

928

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

11509

OptionVotes

YES

455

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.18%chance

16473

OptionVotes

YES

282

Loans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?

Jun 25, 11:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.76%chance

9340

OptionVotes

YES

262

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

YES

138

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

Dec 25, 7:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.46%chance

5115

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?

May 20, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

125

Loans News

Prediction markets for Loans

Prediction markets for Loans

Prediction markets for Loans

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Will @Orangey be late to pay back a loan?

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Looking for loans

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Loans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

What is the Interest for personal mana loans?

Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?

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What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?