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Loans News

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will @amitiscool repays his loan amounts in full by the end of the loan term?

May 8, 8:22 PMMay 8, 10:59 PM

1.35%chance

710695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

856

12

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?

Apr 16, 3:45 PMJun 9, 3:36 PM

117419

OptionProbability

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by more than a year

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan by one year or less

Tumbles is not late to pay back a loan

98

2

0

Will @Orangey be late to pay back a loan?

Oct 21, 5:56 PMApr 13, 5:53 PM

25%chance

63019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?

Feb 17, 2:50 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

3.21%chance

11814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

15

Looking for loans

Nov 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.65%chance

3796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

293

Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.77%chance

11509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

455

58

Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030

Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.18%chance

16473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

35

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.62%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

944

By 2040, there will be a growth boom in a developing country fueled by uncollateralized cryptocurrency loans.

Feb 12, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

82

Will San Francisco have a public bank issue at least one loan before January 1, 2028?

Feb 23, 12:11 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.37%chance

263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

22

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