Loans News
Prediction markets for Loans
What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are ~~gone~~ back?
Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3069184
OptionProbability
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionVotes
173
58
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.88%chance
161389
OptionVotes
1019
976
Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?
Feb 17, 2:50 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
3.22%chance
10813
OptionVotes
617
15
OptionVotes
382
293
Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?
Oct 11, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.77%chance
11509
OptionVotes
455
58
Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?
Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.62%chance
13473
OptionVotes
1310
944
Will Manifold create a system facilitating (and enforcing) player to player loans by EOY 2030
Feb 26, 8:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
10.62%chance
16472
OptionVotes
290
34
Will manifold add any kind of confirmation screen to the loan button by end of 2026
Jan 27, 5:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.12%chance
2202
OptionVotes
298
34
OptionVotes
143
89
Will San Francisco have a public bank issue at least one loan before January 1, 2028?
Feb 23, 12:11 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
16.37%chance
263
OptionVotes
113
22
Will Loan Land still be accessible in the Manifold discord server at the end of 2026?
May 20, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.89%chance
225
OptionVotes
125
80