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Prediction markets for Local

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

65.75%chance

36330981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2624

1931

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Apr 28, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.22%chance

435303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

382

Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 7, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.25%chance

443534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

366

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 21, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.51%chance

24549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

811

Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?

Feb 26, 12:55 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

30.77%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

672

Which cities will be known mostly by their Ukrainian names in local search traffic in 2026?

Jan 1, 12:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4384

OptionProbability

Київ (Kyiv)

Миколаїв (Mykolaiv)

Одеса (Odesa)

Слов'янськ (Sloviansk)

Запоріжжя (Zaporizhzhia)

Харків (Kharkiv)

61

37

36

36

33

27

How many City Mayor and County Magistrate elections will the KMT win in the 2026 Taiwan Local Elections?

Dec 23, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

14

13

15

12

11

16

9-10

17

0-5

6-8

18-19

20-22

15

13

13

11

8

8

6

6

5

5

5

5

Do we live in a Local Hole?

Jan 21, 2:12 AMJan 1, 2:05 AM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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