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Prediction markets for Local

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.54%chance

37232372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2905

1797

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 7, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.23%chance

474934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2534

190

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

Will vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 21, 3:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.51%chance

24549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

811

Will the "Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13" pass (Prop 43)

Apr 25, 3:46 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

19.37%chance

4531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

841

When will US crude oil production reach a local (10 year) maximum?

Nov 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6347

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2035

2035-2039

2045-2049

2040-2045

2055-2059

2050-2055

2020 - 2024

62

50

40

36

34

34

32

8

If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?

Apr 22, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2230

OptionProbability

Above +1200

Above +600

Above +900

60

10

10

Will LSST Supernovae Ia survey find evidence of a local void with |δ|>20% at z<0.1 by EOY 2030?

Aug 26, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.72%chance

3134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Do we live in a Local Hole?

Jan 21, 2:12 AMJan 1, 2:05 AM

54.75%chance

3113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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