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Top stories

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Leaked Israeli Data Shows 83% of Gaza Deaths Are Civilians

Authors

29

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Local Call

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5380630

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

34

6

0

0

0

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

2.79%chance

9658132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26360

741

Will X (Twitter) be banned in Australia in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.7%chance

263739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4070

246

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.46%chance

73401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2433

411

Will the US Constitution be amended to revoke Birthright Citizenship before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.13%chance

262011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

923

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:51 PMJan 1, 10:29 AM

16.86%chance

331874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

783

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61105

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

2

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

38.89%chance

21491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?

Feb 16, 1:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27.91%chance

11411

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1149

928

Will John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?

Sep 5, 12:07 AMJan 3, 12:00 PM

29.28%chance

8231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

64

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

How many count of indictment will Jared Leto face 2026?

Jul 29, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

223

OptionProbability

0

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

1 - 3

Above 15

19

14

14

14

14

12

12

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