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Prediction markets for Local Time

When will Starship flight 10 happen?

Mar 31, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72176896

OptionProbability

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-08-24

Before 2025-08-16

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-07-16

Before 2025-07-08

96

88

63

23

0

0

0

0

0

By when will Starliner-1 launch?

Jun 8, 2:41 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

1664504

OptionProbability

2027-12-31

2026-12-31

2025-12-31

2025-09-30

2025-03-31

2025-06-30

69

44

2

1

0

0

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.54%chance

3845382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27689

3612

When will Artemis II launch?

Jul 30, 8:06 AMDec 31, 9:00 AM

1023152

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Mar 4, 2:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.11%chance

896285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

655

Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?

Feb 22, 9:47 AMOct 21, 2:59 AM

564560

OptionProbability

Yes, and he will be re-elected.

Yes, but he will not be re-elected.

No, he will not finish his first term.

64

28

7

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Feb 13, 2:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

264550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

875

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2027?

Oct 30, 9:18 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

17871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?

Nov 18, 12:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

949

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

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