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Prediction markets for Look

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

674150644

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

75

16

7

1

1

1

Will the world look shockingly similar in 5 years from now (2030)?

Dec 30, 12:23 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

53.67%chance

383834

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

929

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

50%chance

262141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

14.49%chance

221933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

412

Will I think that anyone looked at someone's reciprocity.io matches without their consent via access to the backend by 2030?

Dec 23, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.84%chance

161553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

960

897

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Aug 7, 7:30 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

42.03%chance

121222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

852

Manifold stats graph looks promising again before 2027?

Dec 13, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

19936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will "AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 7:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

84.97%chance

9777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1643

47

By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?

Oct 5, 4:35 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

90.97%chance

9376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

386

144

Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 26, 5:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

When will a video game exist with a practically infinite world (like Minecraft) that looks as nice as the BOTW world?

May 31, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29%chance

9119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

90

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

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