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Prediction markets for Look

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

Will Elon do another suspiciously Roman looking salute by end of 2025?

Jan 20, 10:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.72%chance

446855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2316

432

Will the world look shockingly similar in 5 years from now (2030)?

Dec 30, 12:23 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

46.41%chance

383679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

931

Looking for Growth UK's National Priority Infrastructure Bill becomes law by December 31st 2025

Jan 18, 3:37 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

5.51%chance

53403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4139

242

Will I think that anyone looked at someone's reciprocity.io matches without their consent via access to the backend by 2030?

Dec 23, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.84%chance

161553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

960

897

Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?

Jun 22, 1:15 AMJun 22, 6:59 AM

37.22%chance

211474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.

Mar 1, 6:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.26%chance

341121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

783

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

29.17%chance

221105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

642

Will "AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 7:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

63.11%chance

6390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

132

Will Looking for Growth give a London councillor, the London mayor or an MP before 2030?

Jun 17, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.28%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will "Evidence of Learned Look-Ahead in a Chess-Pla..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 3:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

944

Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 26, 5:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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