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Prediction markets for Lotte

Should you infer in the lottery sniper problem that you're only one of many players?

Dec 25, 1:40 AMMar 2, 4:59 AM

16.7%chance

261912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

824

Will any AI consistently get a perfect score on Maxim Lott's offline IQ test by the end of 2027?

Nov 1, 10:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.03%chance

391851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1493

670

Will I win the lottery within the next 5 years?

Feb 9, 6:31 AMFeb 8, 8:00 AM

1.13%chance

81188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

838

99

What will be the outcome of the class-action lawsuit against Elon Musk for his 2024 election lottery?

Aug 21, 12:48 PMDec 31, 1:40 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Settled out of court

Plaintiffs win

Elon wins

63

21

16

All 85,000 H1-B lottery slots for the next cycle filled despite $100k fee?

Sep 21, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.54%chance

5681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

989

If I win the lottery, will it ruin my life?

Feb 9, 7:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18%chance

8365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

141

Will the NFL institute a Draft Lottery to deter teams from tanking to receive the number one pick before the 2033 draft?

Jan 5, 9:35 PMApr 30, 3:59 AM

23%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

109

Who will win the Amstel Gold Race Ladies Edition (Women) 2026?

Apr 25, 12:21 PMApr 18, 10:59 PM

5191

OptionProbability

Demi Vollering

Puck Pieterse

Other

Lotte Kopecky

👑 Anna van der Breggen

Shirin van Anrooij

Elisa Longo Borghini

Katarzyna Niewiadoma

Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig

Lorena Wiebes

Mischa Bredewold

Évita Muzic

32

21

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will my H-1B registration be selected in the FY2027 lottery?

Mar 18, 7:24 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

71.69%chance

2157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

881

Free Lottery (white dwarf)

Mar 25, 12:29 PMApr 25, 12:27 PM

35%chance

6151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10001

9999

Will the 2027 diversity visa lottery go ahead?

Dec 21, 1:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.39%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

49

Which team will win the 2026 NBA lottery?

Feb 5, 3:30 PMMay 10, 11:59 PM

5116

OptionProbability

Other

Indiana Pacers

Sacramento Kings

New Orleans Pelicans (pick traded to Atlanta Hawks)

Washington Wizards

Utah Jazz

Brooklyn Nets

Dallas Mavericks

16

15

12

12

12

12

12

10

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