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Prediction markets for Lowe
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63%chance
342228245
OptionVotes
2044
1314
OptionVotes
1275
784
High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2026? (add answers)
Jan 16, 9:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
131498
OptionProbability
90
90
89
88
88
61
60
60
59
56
53
44
41
41
38
35
31
Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?
Mar 9, 12:45 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
47.95%chance
35945
OptionVotes
1130
859
OptionVotes
1031
975
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
Oct 1, 1:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.6%chance
10668
OptionVotes
287
123
Will "PSA: Predictions markets often have very low ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 18, 12:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.91%chance
3550
OptionVotes
1550
931
What are some low-effort tips for living mentally and physically healthier, and longer? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 5:42 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
9246
OptionProbability
47
18
12
6
6
6
3
3
“Low skill immigration decreases low skill wages” OR “increasing minimum wage decreases employment”
Jul 4, 12:26 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM
84.91%chance
2140
OptionVotes
237
42
Will USDA/FDA have a labeling program for certifying food with low microplastic load by 2030
Aug 24, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.91%chance
381
OptionVotes
110
91
Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 21, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.95%chance
252
OptionVotes
1052
732
If Alex Zhu were to get qEEG, would his z-score for Fz low-beta power be higher than his z-score for Fz theta power?
Sep 24, 7:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100