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Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

Jan 22, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.01%chance

38131073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129586

2189

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.75%chance

3623586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10465

9846

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

16.4%chance

9715078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9194

4582

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53%chance

458657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10942

8778

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.43%chance

128234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15509

5886

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

Oct 5, 9:51 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

11.08%chance

233674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2660

211

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

36.86%chance

473297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

1123

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.75%chance

91338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

1278

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will the software engineer's salaries/ per capita GDP ratio be lower in 2026 than in 2022, per Levels.fyi?

Apr 2, 7:42 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

50.91%chance

18681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

984

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Will the SMB1 Any% (NTSC) world record go to 4:54.265 or lower by January 1, 2040?

Jun 25, 12:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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