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Prediction markets for Lower

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.54%chance

7327748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13488

6542

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

13.63%chance

10116690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10748

4309

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

Oct 5, 9:51 PMDec 26, 4:59 AM

15%chance

303955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2324

261

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?

Dec 17, 4:11 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

13.51%chance

103256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

787

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will the FY2028 deficit be lower than the FY2024 deficit?

Nov 21, 3:35 AMOct 1, 5:59 AM

29.94%chance

13913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

654

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.27%chance

24501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

892

China's crude steel production in 2027 at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:37 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

56.87%chance

9480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

871

Will I think individual freedom of speech is lower on election day, 2028?

Nov 7, 12:13 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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