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LT News

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.68%chance

492390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5270

1565

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

Aug 19, 6:54 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

121941

OptionProbability

$100K to $1M

$1M to $10M

-$100K to -$1M

-$100K to +$100k

$10M to $100M

-$10M to -$100M

-$1M to -$10M

$100M+

<-$100M

36

30

9

8

4

3

3

3

2

Who is Ash's father? (Pokemon)

Mar 2, 6:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81467

OptionProbability

They will never reveal / it is just some random unnamed guy

Other

Giovanni

Lt Surge

Professor Oak

Time travelling Gary Oak

Mr. Mime

God/Immaculate Conception

40

33

18

4

1

1

1

1

How Many Statewide Offices Will Democrats win in Texas in 2026?

Mar 22, 12:05 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

81250

OptionProbability

1 or more

0

2 or more

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

7 or more

6 or more

8 or more

9 or more

10 or more

11 or more

12 or more

13 or more

14 or more

15 (Democratic Sweep)

56

48

47

25

17

13

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

Who will win the 2026 New York Democratic Primary for Governor?

Oct 28, 4:46 AMJul 1, 5:46 AM

5385

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul (Current Governor)

Antonio Delgado (Current Lt Governor)

Other

96

3

2

Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?

Dec 13, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

9375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

71

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.26%chance

18373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

960

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

How many USD will the Long Term Future Fund (LTFF) pay out in 2025?

Aug 5, 7:00 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

4182

OptionProbability

<4M USD

8M>6M USD

6M>4M USD

12M>10M USD

10M>8M USD

>20M USD

14M>12M USD

16M>14M USD

20M>18M USD

18M>16M USD

71

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

1

1

Vivek Ramaswamy wins 2026 republican primary for governor of Ohio?

Dec 25, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.58%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

91

Will LTPZ outperform SPY over the next 10 years?

Dec 3, 2:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Does training LLMs or LTGMs on copyrighted material violate copyright?

Jan 11, 4:48 AM

200

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