LT News

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

57.32%chance

492691

OptionVotes

YES

4970

1769

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

Aug 19, 6:54 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

121941

OptionProbability

$100K to $1M

$1M to $10M

-$100K to -$1M

-$100K to +$100k

$10M to $100M

-$10M to -$100M

-$1M to -$10M

$100M+

<-$100M

How Many Statewide Offices Will Democrats win in Texas in 2026?

Mar 22, 12:05 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

211818

OptionProbability

1 or more

2 or more

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

6 or more

7 or more

8 or more

9 or more

10 or more

11 or more

12 or more

13 or more

14 or more

15 (Democratic Sweep)

Who is Ash's father? (Pokemon)

Mar 2, 6:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81467

OptionProbability

They will never reveal / it is just some random unnamed guy

Other

Giovanni

Lt Surge

Professor Oak

Time travelling Gary Oak

Mr. Mime

God/Immaculate Conception

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.87%chance

19423

OptionVotes

YES

1010

952

Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?

Dec 13, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.21%chance

9386

OptionVotes

YES

103

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

YES

1056

805

If James Talarico wins the Texas Senate election, will democrats win another statewide office?

Mar 22, 6:23 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

10194

OptionProbability

If Talarico wins, will democrats win another statewide office in Texas? (N/a if Talarico loses)

If Talarico loses, Will democrats win a statewide office in texas? (N/a if Talarico wins)

Will LTPZ outperform SPY over the next 10 years?

Dec 3, 2:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.06%chance

3172

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

Does training LLMs or LTGMs on copyrighted material violate copyright?

Jan 11, 4:48 AM

200

LT News

Prediction markets for LT

Prediction markets for LT

Prediction markets for LT

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

How Many Statewide Offices Will Democrats win in Texas in 2026?

Who is Ash's father? (Pokemon)

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

If James Talarico wins the Texas Senate election, will democrats win another statewide office?

Will LTPZ outperform SPY over the next 10 years?

Does training LLMs or LTGMs on copyrighted material violate copyright?

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