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Prediction markets for LT

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Sep 29, 5:26 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

242778

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Other

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Rob Bonta

Rick Caruso

Xavier Becerra

Chad Bianco

Eleni Kounalakis

Betty Yee

Antonio Villaraigosa

Alex Padilla

Steve Hilton

42

24

11

7

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5267

1567

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

Aug 19, 6:54 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

121941

OptionProbability

$100K to $1M

$1M to $10M

-$100K to -$1M

-$100K to +$100k

$10M to $100M

-$10M to -$100M

-$1M to -$10M

$100M+

<-$100M

36

30

9

8

4

3

3

3

2

Who is Ash's father? (Pokemon)

Mar 2, 6:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81467

OptionProbability

They will never reveal / it is just some random unnamed guy

Other

Giovanni

Lt Surge

Professor Oak

Time travelling Gary Oak

Mr. Mime

God/Immaculate Conception

40

33

18

4

1

1

1

1

Unlikely Democrats to hold office by EOY 2029?

Dec 13, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

9375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

71

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

67.7%chance

17323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

983

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

Who will win the 2026 New York Democratic Primary for Governor?

Oct 28, 4:46 AMJul 1, 5:46 AM

5212

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul (Current Governor)

Antonio Delgado (Current Lt Governor)

Other

86

9

4

Vivek Ramaswamy wins 2026 republican primary for governor of Ohio?

Dec 25, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.58%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

91

Will LTPZ outperform SPY over the next 10 years?

Dec 3, 2:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Does training LLMs or LTGMs on copyrighted material violate copyright?

Jan 11, 4:48 AM

200

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